2009-06-162024-05-14https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/660991摘要：針對重要的經濟敏感性作物，透過準確地產量估測，相關單位能預先提出因應措施以穩定市場供需。目前台灣地區產量預測包含坪割、全割、訪視記錄等，但尚無對現行方式之估計準確度進行全面性比較與評估。另外，了解其它先進國家對於短期或長期農作物單位產量推定作業方法，亦能做為國內作物產量預測的參考指標與改進依據。因此，本計畫目的包含：(1) 蒐集先進國家對農作物單位產量推定作業方法或其他之相關研究。(2) 比較並檢討目前國內大蒜、甘藍、花椰菜、柳橙等農作物單位產量推估及推定作業程序及方法，以尋求最妥適方法。 本計畫工作項目包含：(1) 收集先進國家農作物單位產量推定作業方法或其他之相關研究。(2) 利用近年農作物產量資訊，決定各農作物進行產量預測現行方式所需的樣本大小，並依據所需樣本大小對本年度各農作物分別進行產量預測。(3) 評估現行產量預測法，並與其它先進國家採用之方法互相比較。預期計畫結束後能對大蒜、甘藍、花椰菜、柳橙等四種敏感性作物產量推算法做一全面性評估，並將提出未來執行方案之建議。<br> Abstract: Accurately predicting the yield of economically sensitive crops is important for the government to maintain balance between supply and demand. Yield estimation by two-stage cluster sampling (quadrat sampling) and by cluster sampling are two methods widely adopted in Taiwan. Interviewing farmers is another way to obtain information about crop production in the year. However, according to the best knowledge of ours, there is no comprehensive study in Taiwan to evaluate and compare the accuracy and efficiency of these methods. In this study, we aim to compare the performance of current prediction methods as well as the methods used by other countries. Four sensitive crops are of particular interest: garlic, cabage, cauliflower, and orange. This research consists of three major tasks: (1) To collect feasible prediction methods and other related studies through literature searches. (2) To obtain the required sample sizes for estimating yield by current methods. (3) To evaluate the accuracy and efficiency of current methods and provide suggestions about ways to estimate crop yield in the future.