2012-01-012024-05-15https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/663313摘要：本校和水利署於2005-2011年合作建置易於維護、自動化執行的洪水預報作業系統。然而，因為受到降雨等不確定因素的影響，洪水預報的結果與實際仍有一段差距。為了量化降雨帶來的不確定因素，本計畫採用颱風洪水中心的系集降雨預報結果當成輸入洪水系統的輸入資料，並以機率式方式呈現洪水預報結果，提供決策者更具參考性的資料。<br> Abstract: National Taiwan University and Water Resources Agency developed an automated flood forecasting system, named Distributed Runoff And Inundation Nowcast System, during 2005–2011. However, the predated floods incompletely represent reality because of multiple sources of uncertainty, e.g. further precipitation. This project will quantify the uncertainty of &#64258;ood forecasts induced by precipitation by adopting ensemble numerical weather predictions to drive the prediction of flood. The ensemble forecast of precipitation provided by Ensemble Typhoon Quantitative Precipitation Forecast system developed by Taiwan Typhoon and Flood Research Institute will used. The Ensemble prediction of flood communicates the uncertainty of flood to decision makers, and helps them to make decisions on issuing flood warnings.洪水預報系集預報Flood ForecastEnsemble Forecast