2021-08-012024-05-18https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/703720本計畫旨在研究二個議題。第一、為何台灣的主要政黨沒有明顯的經濟政策分歧，以至於實證上我們僅能看到政治景氣循環理論的證據，以及為何台灣民眾的投票抉擇較少將經濟因素納入考量，以至於經濟投票的影響力不若統獨立場與政黨認同等心理因素。本研究主張，我國特殊的經濟環境是造成政黨執政後經濟政策相近的原因，因此是經濟環境限制政黨的經濟政策立場，而非政黨的刻意選擇導致。另外，台灣民眾將統獨與經濟議題切割，也間接給予執政黨相對彈性的政策運作空間，因此會出現政策與政黨倡導的理念相違背的情況，政策通常是在民意沸騰的情況下才開始轉向。為驗證本計畫的理論與假設，將採用量化研究分析方法，分為兩個階段進行。第一階段以總體經濟指標為分析對象，分析台灣自1996年至2021年期間，不同政黨執政時經濟政策與結果是否存在差異。第二階段則使用網路調查的方式蒐集資料，釐清台灣民眾的經濟偏好立場是否與政黨立場偏離或相合，以此解釋經濟在民眾投票抉擇扮演比重偏低的問題。希望藉由本計畫的研究結果，進一步理解限制政策的原因，以期能從其他角度看待台灣的困境，並找出可能的解決之道。 "This project aims to study two topics. First, why Taiwan’s main political parties do not have obvious differences on economic policies, so that empirically we can only see evidence of the political business cycle theory, and why voters in Taiwan seldom take economic factors into consideration, so that economic voting is not as influential as the psychological factors on voting choices. This research argues that Taiwan’s special economic environment is the reason for the similar economic policies taken by political parties. Thus, the economic environment restricts the political parties’ economic policy stances rather than the deliberate choices of the parties. In addition, the separation of unification-independence issues from economic issues by the people of Taiwan also indirectly gives the ruling party relatively free hand on handling of the economy. Therefore, there may be situations in which policies are contrary to the ideas advocated by the parties. Policies usually begin to shift when public opinion is boiling. In order to verify the theory and hypotheses of this project, quantitative research and analysis methods will be adopted, which will be divided into two stages. The first stage uses macroeconomic indicators as the dependent variables to analyze whether there are differences in economic policies and outcomes between different political parties in Taiwan from 1996 to 2021. The second stage uses online surveys to collect data to examine whether the Taiwanese people’s economic preference stance deviates from or coincides with their identified party’s stance. It is hoped that based on the research results of this project, we can further understand the reasons for the restriction on policy choices, so as to look at Taiwan’s plight from other perspectives and find possible solutions."政治景氣循環理論黨派性景氣循環理論經濟投票統獨立場political business cycle theorypartisan business cycle theoryeconomic votingposition on the cross-strait relations