2019-03-132024-05-17https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/677952摘要：本計畫「颱風強度與暴風範圍預報技術開發」之目的在增進對西北太平洋颱風結構變化特性之瞭解，期協助改進颱風強度與暴風半徑之預報技術。全期計畫為期兩&#63886;，此為第二年計畫。 第一年計畫已完成SUMMER颱風強度預報技術之優化，蒐集與分析颱風暴風半徑相關資料，並發展以CIRA颱風暴風半徑資料為基礎之颱風暴風半徑估算方法。本年計畫將持續蒐集衛星合成之颱風暴風半徑資料(MTCSWA)，評估如何應用此資料於颱風暴風半徑之估計，同時亦將分析應用飛機投落送觀測資料協助颱風暴風半徑估計之可用性；最後則測試在不同資料情境下，合適之颱風暴風半徑估計方法。此外本計畫將初步評估機器學習方法應用於颱風強度診斷的適用性，並嘗試評估此方法在預報作業上之可行性。 <br> Abstract: This is the 2nd year of a 2-year project "The Development of the Typhoon Intensity and Size Forecast Technique." Purpose of this project is to assist in improving the forecasting skill of typhoon intensity and size, especially the 30-kt wind radii (R30). In the first year, the SUMMER technique for typhoon intensity forecasting was improved and the typhoon best track data and satellite data from several countries were collected and analyzed. A method to estimate R30 based on the R34 data which were adapted from Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA) website was developed. In this year, the R34 data of Multiplatform Tropical Cyclone Surface Winds Analysis (MTCSWA) will be collected and used to estimate R30. The dropsondes data around Taiwan will be collected and used to improve the estimation of R30. The R30 estimating methods will also be tested for different scenario with different data sources. Furthermore, the applicability of machine learning in the analysis and forecast of typhoon intensity will be evaluated.颱風大小MTCSWA投落送typhoon sizeMTCSWAdropsondes