柯承恩臺灣大學：商學研究所碩士在職專班高階公共管理組郭建忠Kuo, Jian-JongJian-JongKuo2007-12-032018-06-292007-12-032018-06-292005http://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw//handle/246246/63720國軍推展「國內產業自製能量評估」之目的，是評估委外生產承接機構之技術能力，是否足以自力（具關鍵性技術能量）、借力（藉國外技術移轉）開發國軍所需武器裝備系統，其結論良寙在決策過程中佔有舉足輕重的影響力；若低估國內產業自製能量，形成「外購」決策，則無法適時提升國內科技、經濟與就業水準；若高估而形成「內購」決策，當計畫執行成效不彰時，損失的巨額機會成本，仍須由全體納稅人承擔，加上海峽兩岸政軍經之平衡點變化快速，實讓人難以抉擇。 隨著國內產業製造能力逐漸達國際水準，國軍深感長期外購的趨勢，出現改善契機，日前國防部通令各單位規劃軍事投資案，必須先請經濟部工業局完成「國內產業自製能量評估」，惟執行將滿週年，無論是主管機關（經濟部、國防部）、需求單位（國軍各單位）、國內產業（公會、廠商）對評估報告內容的深廣度仍意見紛歧；究其原因，就是欠缺明確的評估準則與合理的評估模式。 本研究在學者既有研究基礎上，利用品質機能展開、統計分析、因子分析、層級分析法、能力成熟度、灰關聯分析等方法，從實務角度蒐集產、官、學界等專家經驗，建置「委外生產承接機構技術能力多準則評估模式」，並以國內五大汽車生產廠為例驗證之。 經實證後，確認本研究所建置的模式，具備（一）有效釐清評估準則（二）建立合理分析模式（三）賦予能力差異準繩（四）引進新思考方向等效益，可提供主管機關、需求單位、國內產業等三方相互溝通平台，俾利有意參與的廠商確認準備方向，讓需求單位知悉國內產業能力，使主管機關確實發揮決策效益，達到「國內產業自製能量評估」之聚焦目的，促國防資源充分發揮其經濟效益。The purpose that military is promoting the “Domestic production capability assessment” is to evaluate the technical capability of outsourcing, hence determine whether or not they posses the critical tech-capability to produce on their own or able to produce the desired product through tech-transfer for the military need. The result of such matter is playing a great part during the decision making process. If the Domestic production capability is under-estimated, it will lead to the decision of importing the product and unable to elevate the nation’s technology, economy, and job level. When “in-land produce” is decided by over-estimation, all taxpayer will have to face the consequence if the plan doesn’t carry out as wanted. On the account that political, military, and economic balance is constantly changing cross the Taiwan Strait, it severely increases the difficulty when making decision. Taiwan military has sensed that the years of equipment import has come to the verge of change due to the Domestic production capability is reaching international standard. MND has commanded all units to put in the request of “Domestic production capability assessment” through Industry Bureau of Ministry of Economy when undergoing any military investments. However, after this year’s experience, there are still many different opinions to the contents of “Domestic production capability assessment”. It all comes to the facts of lacking adequate evaluation criteria and reasonable methods. This research is based upon existed research foundation. Using several methods, such as Quality Function Development, Statistic Analysis, Factor Analysis, Analytic Hierarchy Process, Capability Maturity, Gray Relational Analysis, and experts’ experiences from all fields it develops “An Multi-Criteria Decision Making（MCDM） Approach for the Evaluation of Technology Capability of Outsourcing” and is validated by an example of top 5 motor companies. After the validation, this research is recognized of clearing assessment criteria, processing reasonable analysis, setting differential standard, and leading to the new dimension of thinking. It helps the authorities, proposed units, industries to form a communication platform. It also aids the industry interested in taking part to determine the preparation direction. Units can familiarize with the Domestic production capability and authority can fully extend the decision effectiveness and focus on Taiwan’s production capability, hence allow the national defense resources act in its the best.頁數 目 錄……………………………………………………………………………………Ⅰ 謝 詞……………………………………………………………………………………Ⅳ 中文摘要……………………………………………………………………………………Ⅴ 英文摘要……………………………………………………………………………………Ⅵ 表 次……………………………………………………………………………………Ⅶ 圖 次……………………………………………………………………………………Ⅷ 第一章 緒論…………………………………………………………………………………1 1.1 背景與動機…………………………………………………………………1 1.2 研究目的……………………………………………………………………2 1.3 範圍與限制…………………………………………………………………3 1.4 內容與架構…………………………………………………………………3 第二章 文獻探討…………………………………………………………………………4 2.1 技術能力…………………………………………………………………4 2.1.1 技術的意義……………………………………………………………………4 2.1.2 技術能力的意義………………………………………………………………7 2.1.3 技術能力評估之重要性………………………………………………………7 2.1.4 技術能力的觀察構面…………………………………………………………8 2.1.5 技術能力之度量方式…………………………………………………………9 2.1.6 小結……………………………………………………………………………10 2.2 汽車產業……………………………………………………………………………11 2.2.1 汽車產業概況…………………………………………………………………11 2.2.2 汽車產銷市場分析……………………………………………………………14 2.2.3 國內五大汽車廠簡介…………………………………………………………15 2.2.4 汽車零件業說明………………………………………………………………18 2.2.5 汽車模具發展…………………………………………………………………20 2.2.6 小結……………………………………………………………………………22 第三章 建立評估模式……………………………………………………………………23 3.1 多準則評估法………………………………………………………………24 3.1.1 多準則評估法的基本要素……………………………………………………24 3.1.2 小結……………………………………………………………………………25 3.2 品質機能展開………………………………………………………………………26 3.2.1 品質機能展開的應用…………………………………………………………26 3.2.2 品質屋…………………………………………………………………………26 3.2.3 小結……………………………………………………………………………28 3.3 問卷調查設計………………………………………………………………………28 3.3.1 問卷設計………………………………………………………………………28 3.3.2 信度與效度……………………………………………………………………29 3.3.3 小結……………………………………………………………………………30 3.4 統計分析……………………………………………………………………………31 3.4.1 敘述統計………………………………………………………………………31 3.4.2 推論統計………………………………………………………………………31 3.4.3 假設檢定………………………………………………………………………32 3.4.4 「F分配」與「t分配」……………………………………………………35 3.4.5 小結……………………………………………………………………………37 3.5 因子分析……………………………………………………………………………37 3.5.1 因子分析的使用特色…………………………………………………………37 3.5.2 因子分析的模式………………………………………………………………38 3.5.3 因子分析的步驟………………………………………………………………39 3.5.4 小結……………………………………………………………………………44 3.6 層級分析法…………………………………………………………………………45 3.6.1 層級分析法的執行步驟………………………………………………………45 3.6.2 小結……………………………………………………………………………47 3.7 能力成熟度…………………………………………………………………………48 3.7.1 能力成熟度的應用……………………………………………………………48 3.7.2 能力成熟度的五個等級………………………………………………………49 3.7.3 小結……………………………………………………………………………49 3.8 灰關聯分析…………………………………………………………………………50 3.8.1 數據前置處理…………………………………………………………………50 3.8.2 灰關聯序………………………………………………………………………52 3.8.3 小結……………………………………………………………………………53 3.9 結語…………………………………………………………………………………54 第四章 案例驗證…………………………………………………………………………55 4.1 建立觀察指標（事前指標）………………………………………………………55 4.2 基本資料分析………………………………………………………………………56 4.2.1 群體屬性說明…………………………………………………………………56 4.2.2 學歷屬性說明…………………………………………………………………57 4.2.3 工作職務屬性說明……………………………………………………………57 4.2.4 工作年資屬性說明……………………………………………………………58 4.3 敘述統計分析………………………………………………………………………59 4.4 問項分析……………………………………………………………………………61 4.4.1 問卷得分高低兩個組別群體，對每一問項的「鑑別度」差異………………61 4.4.2 產、官、學界抽樣群體，對每一問項的「重視度」差異…………………66 4.4.3 小結……………………………………………………………………………74 4.5 因子分析……………………………………………………………………………75 4.6 信度與效度分析……………………………………………………………………81 4.7 建立評估層級架構…………………………………………………………………83 4.8 建立評估構面與評估準則的權重值………………………………………………84 4.9 方案綜合排序………………………………………………………………………85 4.10 資料驗證……………………………………………………………………………87 4.11 結語…………………………………………………………………………………88 第五章 結論與建議………………………………………………………………………89 5.1 結論…………………………………………………………………………………89 5.2 本研究的貢獻……………………………………………………………92 5.3 後續研究方向與建議………………………………………………………………94 參考文獻……………………………………………………………………………………96 英文文獻…………………………………………………………………………………96 中文文獻…………………………………………………………………………………98 附錄一 本研究問卷………………………………………………………………………100836934 bytesapplication/pdfen-US技術能力多準則評估灰關聯分析能力成熟度層級分析法因子分析Technology CapabilityMulti-Criteria Decision Making（MCDM）Factor AnalysisGray Relational AnalysisCapability MaturityAnalytic Hierarchy Process[SDGs]SDG3otherhttp://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw/bitstream/246246/63720/1/ntu-94-P91743019-1.pdf