陳明仁2006-07-252018-07-092006-07-252018-07-091999http://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw//handle/246246/9874河川水位站之警戒水位為防洪重要之指標，在颱洪期間，河川水位站之未來幾小時預報水位是否將超過警戒水位，為後續防洪指揮行動之重要參考。由於一般河川洪水位預報模式僅為定率式之演算，預報之水位結果並不描述各種不確定性造成預報演算水位結果之誤差，不能提供更精確之訊息給予防洪指揮單位，或恐 對防災及救災行動有所延誤。 本研究建立數學模式以河道變量流模式進行即時河川洪水位預報演算，考慮上游邊界流量、下游邊界水位之不確定性，配合統計方法以河川水位站之逐時實測水位作回饋演算修正預報水位。數學模式可供作河川即時洪水預報，除了預報河川水位站之洪水位及其機率，並可以預報河川中水位站未來幾小時洪水位超越警戒水位值之機率，更精確描述預報結果之準確特性，供防災救災指揮之參考。The warning water level of stage stations are the important index for flood prevention. During the typhoon period, it is the key reference for flood prevention actions that whether the forecasting water level will or will not reach over the warning water level. The uncertainties of forecasting water level are not described by the determinstic model, so the more precise information’s are not transmitted to the flood prevention organizations and even the actions are then be delay. The study establish unsteady river routing numerical model for real time river water level forecasting. The uncertainties of upstream boundary discharge and the downstream boundary water level are counted and the hourly observed water level are used for feedback computation of water level by statistics method. The model established by this study is provided for river water level and probabilities forecasting and the probabilities of the future hourly water level whether reach over the warning water level.application/pdf56424 bytesapplication/pdfzh-TW國立臺灣大學水工試驗所洪水預報不確定性forecastinguncertaintyreporthttp://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw/bitstream/246246/9874/1/882218E002041.pdf