2012-08-012024-05-17https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/677821摘要：人口轉型是過去二百年來人類社會經歷的一項重要結構變遷，在這個歷史過程中，隨著偏高且激烈變動的生育率和死亡率逐漸下降並維持在相對低點，人類短暫的生命不但得以延長，女性終其一生奉獻於養兒育女的生命歷程也縮短為成人階段的事件之一，傳統水平擴展的親屬網絡亦漸次轉變為當代垂直分佈的親屬關係。此一結構轉型不但促成女性社經角色及地位的根本改變，因應生命延長也產生現代退休制度的設計，為了提高人力運用的效率，父母對於數量少但存活較久子女的人力資本投資更是明顯增加 。雖然許多國家曾經或正在享受上述人口轉型帶來的正向結果，已開發國家卻陸續面臨少子化與高齡化對於現代社會與經濟制度的挑戰。 依循多數工業化社會的發展路徑，台灣在戰後時期不但快速完成人口轉型，也因此被視為成功的典範之一。然而，近年來台灣社會不僅落入超低的生育率陷阱，偏好男性繼承的傳統文化更導致新生兒性別比失衡，由於性別結構失衡將影響適婚人口的婚配機會，未能適時解決此問題將導致社會結構的不穩定。長期而言，偏低的生育水準與婚姻類型的改變將共同影響家庭連帶以及家戶組成的規模與結構。基於人口轉型、婚姻與家庭制度的關聯研究在全球學界正方興未艾，此三年期計畫擬定探討台灣社會之人口轉型對於家庭動態的長期影響效應，主要研究議題包括以下三部份： 1.利用長期生育資料、透過微視模擬方法，重建不同出生世代女性的生育史，比較說明台灣女性生命歷程的轉變趨勢。 2.針對台灣人口的年齡與性別結構以及婚配偏好，分析婚姻組成的類型與長期趨勢，並評估跨國婚姻的潛在需求。 3.藉由合適的人口模擬方法，建構當代親屬關係與組成，進而預測、評估人口與婚姻的動態特性對於家庭規模與結構的長期影響。 <br> Abstract: The term “demographic transition” refers to secular shift in fertility and mortality from high and sharply fluctuating levels to low and relatively stable ones; from short life to long; from life-long demands on women to raise young children to the concentration of these demands in the small part of adulthood; from horizontally rich kin networks to vertically rich ones. This historical process ranks as one of the most important changes affecting human society. The transition made possible the radical change in women’s economic and social roles; the invention of retirement as the third stage of life; and a demographic efficiency that fostered heavy investment in the human capital of fewer but longer-lived children. Some of these effects have beneficial for the societies involved, but some of the major challenges facing societies today are a direct or indirect consequence of the demographic transition. Following the route of demographic transition experienced by many industrial societies, Taiwan has passed through this process rapidly and been appraised as one of the most successful case in the world. In recent years, however, Taiwan is confronting not only the demographic trap of the lowest fertility rate but a distorted sex ratio at birth because of the favorite of smaller families and unchanged cultural preference for male heirs. The imbalance of sex ratio of marriage age has been viewed as a hidden danger for society that will affect social stability in the near future. Additionally, the decrease in fertility rate and marital instability are both changing the size and structure of family ties and household formation. Because the transition is a global phenomenon, the fact that various parts of the world are at different stages of the demographic transition helps us chart at least part of the future course within Taiwan society. Therefore, the main goal of this three-year proposal is to explore the long-term implications of the demographic transition on the family dynamics in Taiwan. Three research issues consist of this research as follows: 1.Using a longitudinal cohort-based method, we will reconstruct Taiwanese woman’s life course patterns and reproductive behaviors as well as evaluate whether a reversal from the historically unprecedented low fertility level could start to appear or not. 2.Considering the sex-age population structure and marital preferences, we will investigate the formation of assortative marriages and the necessity of cross-border marriage in the long run. 3.Using a microsimulation model to reconstruct the changing dimensions of kin groups, we will predict and assess the impact of changing vital rates and union formation on kin networks and household structure in Taiwan.人口轉型婚姻與家庭動態過程Demographic TransitionMarriage and FamilyDynamic Proccess