2012-05-232024-05-14https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/658747摘要：臺灣地區對水的需求逐年增加，復加氣候變遷導致降雨時機與強度跟以往有明顯差異，近年用水量時常有不足的情況發生。近年北臺灣頻繁面臨缺水問題，多以停灌休耕方式解決用水不足的窘境，因此，為確保水資源永續利用機能，並維持農業永續經營與發展目標，將深入探討氣候變遷情況下桃園地區農業灌溉配水因應策略，探討地區水資源與水庫庫容對於缺水情況之相互影響關係，此外，採用智慧型理論研擬農業用水調用比例操作策略，同時考量決策者之喜好進行風險評估，另針對現有缺水等級及門檻分析其適用性，依現行分級方式進一步採用模糊理論等作更適配之指標建置，綜合探討桃園地區一期作缺水時期配水機制，期能建置一乾旱時期智慧型水庫決策支援系統，降低調用農業用水所帶來的風險與損失。<br> Abstract: In Taiwan, the constant population growth and climate change have resulted in a tremendous demand for natural resources, especially water. The water shortage problems in northern Taiwan frequently happened in recent years, and the government mostly made the decision to restrict agriculture use water. Because of the higher tolerance of agricultural use water in water shortage, agricultural use water can be transformed into diverse water usage (such as domestic usage) during drought periods. Therefore, in order to ensure the sustainable use and management of water resource, the objective of this project was to find the intelligent agriculture water resources allocation strategies. We intended to analyze the interactive effects of local water resources and reservoir storages on the water shortages. Furthermore, the intelligent theorems were adopted to find the discount ratios of agricultural use water, and the decision makers’ preference were also be considered for risk assessment. The applicability of the current water shortage levels and thresholds were estimated in this project. The fuzzy theory or other methods were used to propose the water shortage index. The first crop of paddy in Taoyuan area was as a case study for the discussion of the water allocation mechanism during drought periods. The intelligent decision support system during drought periods was built to reduce the risk and compensation of the restriction on agricultural use water.智慧理論水資源調配農業用水。Intelligent Theoremwater resources allocationagriculture water supply.