2005-08-012024-05-13https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/655119摘要：本研究之目的在利用植物功能型（Plant functional type，PFT）之觀念，探討氣候變遷對台灣山區植群之可能衝擊與影響。所謂植物功能型乃是將未必具親源關係，但在生活型態、生長型、光合作用與生理構造及生活史等方面具有相同特徵之物種歸於同一型；也就是針對植物在不同環境條件下各自發展出的功能型態作區分，是以植物功能型能較有效地作為探討氣候變遷與植群間關係的依據。 研究區將以台灣海拔1,000公尺以上之山區為研究對象。計畫將分成下列各子目標： （1）尋找界定台灣山區植群形相的最重要氣候因子 （2）建立台灣山區植群最適的氣候PFT分類方法 （3）結合（1）與（2）建立台灣山區以PFT為基準的氣候範圍植群模式 （4）探討台灣山區在可能的氣候變遷情境下所可能產生的變動 （5）探討現今台灣主要植物優勢種在氣候變遷下之風險與植群整體完整度 <br> Abstract: The main objective of this proposed project is to establish the optimal plant functional types (PFT) classification system for the purpose of studying the likely impacts of climate changes on the vegetation integrities of Taiwan’s montane area (elevation above 1,000 m). The project is divided into five sub-goals: (1) Based on the existing vegetation analysis results, define the most important climatic factors that control the distributions and physiognomies of Taiwan’s montane vegetations. This goal will be achieved through analyzing the long-term climatic data from the weather station closest to each vegetation study site. A three-dimension (latitudinal, longitudinal and altitudinal) map will be developed for each controlling climatic factor based on nonparametric smoothing methods (e.g., smoothing splines or thing plate splines). (2) Define the optimal PFT system based on an iterative ploytheic procedure. For each vegetation, the procedure will require three matrices, a population traits matrix, a relative abundance matrix for vegetation components, and a climatic factor matrix. Via grouping of similar traits, the objective of the procedure is to maximize the correlation between the combined trait-abundance matrix and the climatic factor matrix. After the PFT system is developed, it will then be applied to each major vegetation type to determine their PFT components. For each vegetation type, the required PFTs as well as its companion PFTs will also be identified. (3) Based on the results from (1) and (2), define a multi-dimensional climatic envelope model for each PFT; the most limiting climatic factor will also be identified for each PFT. (4) Generating the most likely climatic changes scenarios based on existing studies, and the scenarios will then be projected to the model developed in (1). Based on the assumption that the climatic envelope of a PFT will remain unchanged, then for a given vegetation type its PFTs components will be determined based on the projected climatic scenario model. A Monte Carlo approach will be used to incorporate the uncertainties associated with the climatic predictions into assessments. (5) For each PFT, its likely risk in a vegetation type will be assessed based on the presence probability estimated from the Monte Carlo simulation carried out in (4). For each major vegetation type, an index of community integrity (ICI) will also be calculated based on its projected PFT components.植物功能型氣候變遷森&#63988植群組成完整性Plant Functional TypeClimate ChangeForest VegetationComponent Integrity