郭瑞祥臺灣大學：商學研究所碩士在職專班商學組李清山Lee, Chin-ShanChin-ShanLee2007-12-032018-06-292007-12-032018-06-292006http://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw//handle/246246/63825我國現階段能源政策係以「永續」、「安全」、「效率」及「潔淨」為核心目標，除繼續提高能源效率及推廣汽電共生外，將擴大低碳(如天然氣)或無碳能源(如水力、風力、太陽能等再生能源)之發展與使用。而台灣能源消費結構中，電力消費比重逐年增加，至2025年時，預計電力需求將占總能源消費需求之55.7 %，其中再生能源和汽電共生等分散型電力部分，約占台灣電力系統總裝置容量之25 %，顯示未來分散型電力在台灣電力系統之重要性將逐年增加。 燃料電池發電系統如使用天然氣燃料，屬低碳能源；如使用再生能源或核能發電並以水電解法製氫做為燃料，則屬無碳能源，是因應溫室氣體減量之理想技術，符合我國之能源政策需求。綜合分析國際和我國燃料電池發展現況與未來趨勢，重點結論如下： ․燃料電池發電系統將成為國際上分散型電力之主流技術； ․日、韓、中國大陸和美國夏威夷等鄰近國家或地區加速發展燃料電池分散型電力，對我國之示範效應逐漸形成； ․發展燃料電池分散型電力將成為我國邁向氫經濟時代之利基； ․修訂能源相關法案，並建構燃料電池國家創新系統，是台灣成功發展燃料電池分散型電力之關鍵； ․為達成京都議定書之溫室氣體減量目標，並維繫人類的永續發展，核能發電與氫能生產技術結合，將成為國際上新能源研發之趨勢。 對於台灣應用燃料電池發展分散型電力之策略，本研究綜合SWOT分析、專家學者意見調查結果與參考國家創新系統分析架構，提出下列建議： 1.成立氫能與燃料電池國家型科技計畫，擴大長期技術研發投資，並強化各界研發之整合； 2.建立燃料電池技術發展網路園區(產業群聚)，強化創新與技術整合能力； 3.利用既有天然氣基礎建設，優先推動燃料電池分散型電力示範計畫； 4.制訂整體且明確之分散型電力政策，進而立法，以獎勵促進分散型電力之推廣應用； 5.培育國內燃料電池相關研發人才，並加強國際技術交流與合作； 6.制訂分散型電力與集中型供電系統互聯之相關標準與測試規範； 7.分期建立氫供應系統：短、中期以低碳能源(如天然氣)為主，長期以無碳能源(如核能)為主，以利我國邁向氫經濟時代。Taiwan’s energy policy today is aimed at achieving sustainability, security, efficiency, and cleanliness. In addition to increasing energy efficiency and promoting combined-heat-and-power generation, the policy calls for increases in the use of low-carbon energy resources such as natural gas, or carbon-free energy resources such as the renewable energy resources including hydropower, wind power, and solar power. Over the decades, the share of electricity consumption has been continuing to grow. It’s projected to account for 55.7 % of total energy demand in 2025, of which about 25 % is provided by the distributed power generation from renewable energy and combined-heat-and-power generation. It demonstrates that distributed power generation is expected to play a more important role in Taiwan’s electricity supply system. A fuel cell power generation system using natural gas is a low-carbon energy resource, while that using renewable energy or nuclear power for producing hydrogen by employing water-electrolysis method is a carbon-free energy resource. As such, fuel cell system is an ideal technology holding promise for effectively reducing greenhouse gas releases and satisfying Taiwan’s energy policy requirements. With an overall review and evaluation of international and Taiwan’s developments in fuel cell technologies, this study reached the following conclusions: ․Fuel cell power generation systems are expected to become the prevailing technology of distributed power. ․The neighboring countries including Japan, Korea, China and Hawaii of the United States have long intensified their RD & D efforts on developing fuel-cell-based distributed power generation technologies, which in turn would put a pressure on Taiwan to follow up. ․A well-developed distributed power generation system based on fuel cell technologies is the cornerstone for Taiwan’s transition to a hydrogen economy. ․Amending energy-related laws and regulations and establishing a national innovation system for developing fuel cell technologies are keys to a success in Taiwan’s development of fuel-cell-based distributed power generation systems. ․To meet the targets of reducing greenhouse gas releases, as called for in the Kyoto Protocol, and to secure a sustainable development of mankind, the technology of co-generating electricity and hydrogen by using nuclear energy will prevail in the international quest for new energy. On proposing strategies for developing fuel-cell-based distributed power generation systems in Taiwan, this study has conducted a SWOT analysis and a survey of experts’ opinions. The study also referred to an analytical structure based on the concept of national innovation system. As a result, the following strategies are suggested: ․Establish a national development program on hydrogen energy and fuel cells, promoting increases in the investment on long-term technologies development and enhancing the integration of RD & D efforts of various institutions. ․Establish a “Fuel Cell Technologies Development Network Park” to strengthen the industry’s capabilities in innovation and system integration. ․Utilize the existing natural gas infrastructure and promote demonstration of fuel-cell based distributed power generation systems. ․Build a well-organized national policy on distributed power generation, serving as a foundation for enacting laws for encouraging and promoting the use of distributed power generation systems. ․Bring up talents in the development of fuel cell technologies and promote international technological exchanges and co-operations. ․Build codes and standards in the interconnection between the distributed power systems and the existing centralized power system. ․Establish in phases the hydrogen supply infrastructure: –Short and mid-term: using low-carbon energy resources, such as natural gas, for producing hydrogen; –Long-term: using carbon-free energy resources, such as nuclear power, for producing hydrogen.中文摘要……………………………………………………………….iii 英文摘要…………………………………………………………………iv 目 錄……………………………………………………………………vi 圖目錄……………………………………………………..………..viii 表目錄……………………………………….……………….........ix 第一章 緒論………………………………………………………….1 第一節 研究背景與動機…………………………………………….1 第二節 研究目的…………………………………………………….3 第三節 研究方法…………………………………………………….3 第四節 論文架構…………………………………………………. .5 第五節 研究限制………………………………………………….…5 第二章 文獻回顧………………………………………………….…7 第一節 策略意涵…………………………………………………….7 第二節 SWOT策略分析方法………………………………..……….8 第三節 國家創新系統分析方法…………………………………….9 第三章 氫能源與燃料電池技術現況與發展趨勢…………………15 第一節 國際能源供需現況與未來發展……………………………15 第二節 為何需要氫能源……………………………………………16 第三節 國際氫能源與燃料電池技術現況與發展趨勢…………..18 第四章 燃料電池與分散型電力產業現況與發展趨勢……………31 第一節 國際燃料電池產業現況……………………………………31 第二節 國際分散型電力技術發展現況……………………………44 第三節 燃料電池應用於分散型電力之國際現況和發展趨勢……46 第四節 燃料電池應用於分散型電力面臨之挑戰…………………54 第五章 台灣應用燃料電池發展分散型電力之策略………………58 第一節 台灣能源供需現況與發展趨勢……………………………58 第二節 台灣燃料電池產業現況……………………………………61 第三節 台灣分散型電力現況與未來發展趨勢……………………69 第四節 SWOT分析…………..……………………………………..72 第五節 專家學者意見調查…………………………………………81 第六節 國家創新系統分析…………………………………………83 第七節 台灣應用燃料電池發展分散型電力之策略………………87 第六章 結論與建議.………………………………………………..93 第一節 結論………………………………………………………….93 第二節 建議………………………………………………………….96 第三節 後續研究方向……………………………………………….99 參考文獻………………………………………………………….100 附錄A 專家學者意見調查問卷…………………………………....A-1 附錄B 專家學者意見調查對象………………………………………B-1 附錄C 專家學者意見綜合分析………………………………………C-11371609 bytesapplication/pdfen-US氫能燃料電池分散型電力SWOT分析國家創新系統Hydrogen EnergyFuel CellDistributed Power Generation SystemSWOT AnalysisNational Innovation System[SDGs]SDG7otherhttp://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw/bitstream/246246/63825/1/ntu-95-P93748019-1.pdf