2014-03-132024-05-15https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/662826摘要：本計畫將配合中央氣象局預報精緻化的目標，發展適用台灣地區之鄉鎮尺 度颱風降雨與台灣附近海域風力的預報技術；全程計畫預計三年完成，本年為 第三年。第一年計畫利用李（2009，2010，2011）完成之動力模式控制組模 擬結果的風力資訊，與實際觀測進行分析比較，並利用控制組及系集模擬結 果，建立台灣附近海面風力之動力統計預報模式。第二年計畫改進風力動力模 式背景資料庫，調整網格解析度以增加模式之穩定度，並針對不同類型颱風進 行校驗分析，了解模式對各類型颱風之預報能力及誤差造成之原因。本年計畫 利用系集模擬結果，進行鄉鎮尺度之颱風降雨機率預報(PQPF)技術研發；同 時亦針對不同類型之颱風進行此PQPF技術之校驗工作，分析其降雨機率預報 之特徵，並探討預報誤差之可能之原因。<br> Abstract: The purpose of this project is to develop an integrated forecasting technique for the city/town-scale typhoon rainfall in Taiwan area and the sea surface wind speed near Taiwan, to help meet the goal of the operational requirement of the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) during the typhoon warning period. This is the third year of a three-year project. In the first year of this project, the wind speeds of the control runs of Lee（2009, 2010, 2011）were compared&nbsp;to the wind observations. The output of the control runs and the ensemble runs were used to develop a dynamic-statistical model for forecasting the surface wind speed over ocean near Taiwan. In the second year, the data base of the model was improved by reducing grid-resolution, to increase the model stability. In addition, the verification of the model was carried out to help understand the model capability in forecasting different types of typhoon. In this year, a probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (PQPF) technique for city/town-scale typhoon rainfall will be developed using the outputs of ensemble simulations. Besides, verification of the developed PQPF technique will be carried out for different types of typhoons. The characteristics of PQPF for different types of typhoon will be analyzed and the possible reason for the forecast errors will be discussed.鄉鎮尺度降雨機率預報風力預報city/town-scalePQPFsurface wind speeds forecast