許耀文臺灣大學:國際企業學研究所林耕億Lin, Keng-YiKeng-YiLin2010-05-112018-06-292010-05-112018-06-292009U0001-2107200900463600http://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw//handle/246246/1827862008年美國發生次級房貸風暴，進而引起全球性的經濟衰退，信貸緊縮、資產價值、國際貿易與經濟活動皆受到嚴重的衝擊，根據IMF的預測，2009年台灣的經濟成長率將下降7.4%，而全球經濟成長率將下降0.5%，這是自二次世界大戰以來最低的成長率，而台灣股價加權指數也從2007年的高點9859點一路下跌至2008年底的3955點，美國道瓊工業指數從2007年高點14198點下跌至6469點，對所有的投資人而言皆是一場惡夢。鐵產業受景氣影響劇烈，中鋼為台灣重要發展的基本工業龍頭，在經濟情況惡劣的環境下，加以面對全球鋼鐵業的購併趨勢及東協的形成，究竟其股權價值為何是本研究想要探討的問題。本研究從鋼鐵業的歷史開始，先了解整體鋼鐵業上下游的競爭情況以及目前世界鋼鐵業的變化趨勢，然後分析未來可能的變化情況，再以自由現金流量法估計中鋼在不景氣的環境下，其最保守的價值為多少。先先分析中龍擴建案完成後對台灣整體鋼鐵需求的影響及變化，再以合理的方式計算其營收1.在外銷市場維持不變;2.東南亞市場被消滅;兩種情況下的股權價值，最後以投資報酬率折現分別得到在外銷市場維持不變的情況下，最保守價值為每股27.46元，而在東南亞市場被消滅的情況下，最保守價值為每股26.83元。2008, the subprime mortgage crisis hits U.S., and it further spreads to the whole world, causing global economic recession and credit crunch. Asset value, international trade, and economic activities were all being impacted. According to the prediction of IMF, the GDP growth rate of Taiwan will be down by -7.4% YoY, and the worldwide GDP growth rate will be down by -0.5% as well, the worst numbers after World War II. TAIEX has dropped from 9859 - the peak point of 2007 to 3955 at the end of 2008. INDU has also plummeted from 14198 - the peak point of 2007 to 6469. This economic recession is a nightmare for all investors.teel industry is very sensitive to economic cycle. China Steel, the leader company of fundamental industry, acts as an important role in the Taiwanese economic development has also faced challenges from gloabal economic illness. To be specifics, the merger and acquisition trend of the global steel industry and the forming of Association of South-east Asian Nations. In this thesis, it will focus on the discussion the actual stock value of China Steel. To begin with, the history of steel industry, understand the competition situation of upstream and downstream and the trend of global steel industry, then analyze the possible changes in the future. In the end, using Discounted Cash Flow Method to estimate what is the most conservative value of China Steel.n this thesis, it will analyze the stock value of China Steel by using the following steps: Firstly, analyzing the exapanding project of Dragon Steel how will it affect the demand of Taiwanese market. Secondly, calculating its revenues by assuming export market unchaned, or Southeast Asian market has been elimated. Under the export market unclanged, it will have the most conservative value of NT 27.46 per share; but in the situation of Southeast Asian market has been eliminated the most conservative value will be NT 26.83 per share.圖目錄 I目錄 II文摘要 IVbstract V一章 緒論 7一節 研究背景 7二節 研究動機與目的 9三節 研究架構與流程 10二章 文獻討探 11一節 葛拉漢的價值投資 11二節 相關論文回顧 15三章 鋼鐵產業 18一節 鋼鐵產業介紹 18二節 世界鋼鐵市場概況 24三節 台灣鋼鐵業發展及現況 32四節 中鋼的發展及現況 38四章 中鋼的分析與探討 45一節 原物料分析-重要性及價格 46二節 鋼鐵需求分析 57三節 東亞主要競爭對手 59四節 內外銷市場分析 67五章 評價模型 76一節 評價模型介紹 76二節 中龍擴建案對台灣粗鋼自給率的影響 79三節 現金流量法評價 82四節 考慮外銷變化下的中鋼價值 92六章 結論與建議 96一節 結論 96二節 研究限制 97考文獻 99application/pdf1051394 bytesapplication/pdfen-US中鋼中龍評價鋼鐵China steeldragon steelvaluationsteel[SDGs]SDG8thesishttp://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw/bitstream/246246/182786/1/ntu-98-R96724067-1.pdf