2006-08-012024-05-17https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/676129摘要：本計畫為“颱風臨台路徑與侵台風雨預報技術發展暨預報實驗”整合計畫之第七子計畫。計畫長期目標為針對侵台颱風，分析其伴隨降雨特徵，並針對其中較特殊之個案（如2001年之桃芝颱風，2004年之敏督利颱風等），透過MM5（或WRF）模擬與結果之分析，探討導致其特殊降雨之物理機制。最後則綜合分析與模擬結果，對特徵較明確者，建立概念模式並發展預報指引，以支援預報實驗之需求。初期計畫預計兩年完成，著重於由台灣南方北上侵台的颱風，本計畫為第三年延伸計畫。 在前兩計畫中已分析颱風即將侵台前之3小時路徑和路徑變化特徵，以做為颱風路徑即時預報之參考。此外，並已分析北上侵台颱風之降水分佈，評估颱風降雨氣候模式（Lee et al. 2005）的適用性。其次，本研究針對具特殊降雨特徵的桃芝颱風（2001），模擬並探討其登陸前之路徑變化過程；並針對敏督利颱風，模擬並初步探討綜觀和中尺度過程在持續性豪雨所扮演之角色。 本年計畫中，將完成敏督利颱風的模擬與分析工作，並探討颱風環流和中尺度環流（尤其是背風副中心）間之交互作用，以及其在持續性豪雨上所扮演的角色。其次，將分析2005年侵台的海棠、泰利和龍王颱風的結構和<br> Abstract: This is the seventh sub-project of the mission-oriented integrated project “The development of forecast techniques and forecast experiment for typhoon approaching or invading Taiwan”. The long-term purpose of this sub-project is to analyze the rainfall distribution associated with typhoons invading Taiwan and to understand the physical mechanisms leading to unusual severe rainfall associated with some typhoons (such as Toraji in 2001 and Mindulle in 2004) using MM5 or WRF. Finally, the results will be synthesized to develop conceptual model for those typhoons with well-defined features. The forecast guidance will be developed to support the need of the forecast experiment. The first phase, emphasized on typhoons from the south took two years to complete and this is the third year extending project. In the first two years, we have finished the climatology of the 3-hour track and track changes of typhoons near Taiwan. In addition, the rainfall distributions associated with typhoons approaching Taiwan from the south have been analyzed. The applicability of typhoon rainfall climatology model (Lee et al. 2005) to estimate the rainfall of these typhoons has been evaluated. Next, numerical simulation of Typhoon Toraji (2004) has been performed to study the physical mechanism leading to the abrupt change in moving direction right before making landfall. Numerical simulation has also been performed for Typhoon Mindulle to study preliminarily the role that the synoptic and the mesoscale circulations played on the continuous severe rainfall. In this year, we will finish analyzing the simulation results of Mindulle. The interactions among the synoptic circulation, the mesoscale circulation (especially the lee-side secondary vortex) and the line convections will be analyzed. The effects of the multi-scale interactions on the continuous severe rainfall will be addressed. In addition, Typhoons Haitang, Talim and Longwang that invaded Taiwan in 2005 will be analyzed to study the characteristics of their structures and tracks. The data taken by Aerosonde while penetrating through the eye of Longwang will also be analyzed. Finally, we will simulate Toraji and Longwang using WRF to study the mechanisms that maintain the compact structure of these two typhoons. The relationships between the compact structure and the concentrated local severe rainfall will also be addressed.颱風颱風登陸地形影響數值模擬概念模式typhoontyphoon landfalltopographical effectnumerical simulationconceptual model