2004-08-012024-05-17https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/695553摘要：本計畫擬研究跨國企業在面臨匯率波動的情況下,實質選擇權之考量是否會對其國外直接投資之決策產生顯著之“遲滯”性的影響. 近年來,以實質選擇權之觀點分析廠商之投資決策逐漸興盛.本研究擬以實質選擇權之分析架構,對台商進行深度訪談及問卷調查,收集及分析實證資料,以便了解跨國企業在決定是否赴海外進行直接投資時,是否會產生Avinash Dixit 於1989年發表於 Quarterly Journal of Economics 之論文中所預測的“遲滯”性投資行為 (Hysteresis). 藉由研究國外直接投資與匯率波動的關係,當有助於匯率政策之制定者分析其決策對廠商赴海外投資之影響.同時,本研究之結論,亦可幫助跨國企業決定赴海外投資之最佳時機,以及如何以外匯衍生性金融商品來配合其國外投資之決策. <br> Abstract: In this study we aim to investigate whether multinationals, under exchange rate uncertainty, show significant‘hysteresis’behavior (which is predicted by real options theorists) in their foreign direct investment decisions. Recently, it has been more and more popular to analyze the investment behavior of firms from the perspective of real options. This study would use such a framework to test the hypothesis that multinationals do have a hysteresis investment behavior, as argued by Avinash Dixit in his 1989 paper in the Quarterly Journal of Economics. The empirical research data would be collected through interview with multinationals and questionnaires. The result of this study should be helpful when exchange rate policy-makers analyze the impact of their policies on the foreign direct investment decisions of multinationals. In addition, the research result could help multinationals determine the optimal timing of a foreign direct investment and use currency derivatives to improve such investments.實質選擇權匯率國外直接投資台商Real OptionsExchange Rate,Foreign Direct Investment,Overseas Taiwanese Companies