2023-08-012024-05-18https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/703200本計畫原申請兩年期計畫，已獲得國科會補助「第一年」計畫（2022/08/01 - 2023/07/31），核定計畫編號為111-2611-M-002-009-。目前第一年度計畫（空間異質性對於魚類豐度估計影響）已有初步成果，並已於2022年8月投稿至國際期刊（Fisheries Research），該研究成果具科學方法上的突破，引領並鏈結國際學術社群，提升國際能見度，對於學術研究及該重要經濟魚種之豐度估計方法有很大的貢獻。鑑於魚類數量變動同時受到漁撈活動及海洋環境變動（或氣候變遷）所影響，然而傳統資源評估方法往往忽略環境因子影響，造成資源評估結果的高未確定性，嚴重影響漁業管理成效及漁業永續。第二年（2023/08/01 – 2024/07/31）的計畫目標將進一步深入考慮氣候變遷之影響，來改進魚類資源評估科學方法。秋刀魚為北太平洋海域重要國際漁業資源，自2017年起各國漁獲量劇烈下降，2021年漁獲量更為40年來歷史新低，資源狀況堪憂，亟需在科學研究方法上改進來對其資源變動有更進一步的瞭解與掌握。第二年計畫為將環境因子考慮至資源評估方法中，並探討資源量過低時的逆補償（depensation），利用不同的模型假說，探討造成秋刀魚資源狀態在近年持續低迷的可能原因。研究結果將有助於國內漁政單位及國際漁業管理組織（北太平洋漁業委員會）制訂更完善且周詳之漁業管理措施，促使該重要漁業資源之永續。 This project originally applied for a two-year project, and has been funded the first-year project (2022/08/01-2023/07/31) by the National Science and Technology Council (111-2611-M-002- 009-). At present, the first year’s project (fish abundance index estimation) has a preliminary result. The research outcome has been published in Fisheries Research. Noting that the changes in fish population are affected by both fishing activities and changes in the marine environment (or climate change), traditional stock assessment methods often ignore the impact of environmental factors, resulting in high uncertainty in assessment results, seriously affecting the effectiveness of fishery management and fishery sustainability. The second-year project (2023/08/01-2024/07/31) is to further explore the impact of climate change on the stock assessment modeling approach. Pacific saury is an important commercial fishery resource in the North Pacific Ocean. Since 2017, the catch of various countries has dropped dramatically, and the catch of 2020 has reached the lowest level in the past 40 years. It is urgent to improve scientific research methods to understand the mechanism of the biomass dynamics of Pacific saury. The second-year project is to explore evidence for potential factors contributing to the lack of stock recovery of Pacific saury, including fishing pressure, environmental change, and depensation. The results of our research will help the domestic fishery agency and the international fisheries management organization (North Pacific Fisheries Committee; NPFC) to develop conservation and management measures for a long term sustainable fishery.秋刀魚;向量自回歸時空模式;單位努力漁獲量標準化;資源評估;北太平洋漁業委員會;climate change; depensation; stock assessment modeling; Pacific saury; North Pacific Fisheries Commission