劉格非臺灣大學：土木工程學研究所李欣輯Li, Hsin-ChiHsin-ChiLi2007-11-252018-07-092007-11-252018-07-092006http://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw//handle/246246/50202土石流災害的發生，通常都會造成非常嚴重的損失。因此，每次政府都會積極的投入災後整治的工作，只為了能將災害的損失減至最低。但歷年來的災後整治和相關衍生之問題，已逐漸造成政府財政上的重擔。因此為了讓政府經費使用的更有效率，各種土石流防災方法之成本效益分析就佔了重要的角色。透過成本效益的評估，就能確實掌握各種方法之實際防災效果，提高資源使用的效率。 本文第二章會先透過山坡地管理制度的演進，來了解目前山坡地管理制度的發展，然後再透過實際執行的現況，分析制度執行時所遭遇的問題。第三章是利用經濟學的外部性理論，討論制度執行時的交易成本(主要是協商、補償的成本)，然後依據外部效果內部化的概念，量化此交易成本，藉以評估各種防災方法的執行成本。第四章再依據經濟學中的損失定義，建立一套土石流的災損評估方式，初步估算土石流災害的損失。第五章為針對目前土石流影響範圍的劃定方式做詳細的討論，然後選用較佳的劃定方法，作為土石流影響範圍之計算方法。第六章即開始對各制度進行成本效益的分析。 透過本文所建立的災損評估方法，可以初步將大部份可見的損失予以量化，並且透過量化的分析過程，可以清楚得知每一項損失因子佔總損失的比例，災後的整治就可以針對各項損失的權重進行分配，以達到最適當的安排。再者，利用土石流災損評估之結果，可以直接估算各種防災方法之成本及效益，並透過淨效益的分析，即可求出最佳的防災制度，而此模式所分析的結果，可提供決策單位對於土石流防災制度選擇之參考。Debris flow disasters are usually accompanied by a serious loss of lives and property. The related recovery, prevention, and mitigation measures have put a heavy financial burden on the government. A usable and practical assessment methodology has to be developed in order to financially evaluate proper countermeasures. If the assessment can be done accurately, the government can have a better understanding of the overall mitigation measurements in the area, including preventative measures and rescue procedures. This is the aim of this paper. Chapter 2 will discuss the procedures for management systems of mountainsides. Through the analysis of present situations, we will assess the management problems related to dealing with debris flow. Chapter 3 will introduce the theory of externality, which is discussed in the economic arena, for dealing with the problems of management systems. Chapter 4 will describe an assessment method to quantify debris-flow hazards. During this process, which category will bear the greatest loss should be obvious. This method can also be used for the evaluation of mitigation measures. Furthermore, this assessment method can be used before the disaster actually occurs. Chapter 5 will discuss the method for deciding where the affected areas lie. In general, numerical simulation is considered more accurate, provided that the input is not faulty. The program Debris-2D (Huang, 2003) was used in delimiting the affected area of debris flow in this paper. Chapter 6 will take some cases of debris-flow disasters as examples for verification of the theory. Finally, using the research of this paper, we can take the results to determine the debris-flow hazard defense magnitude; it can be applied to weigh the benefits of any kind of prevention works dealing with debris flow. For example, once the detailed losses of the disaster can be assessed, the benefits of the prevention works can be relatively calculated, which means a reduction in disaster loss. Then, by applying the method of cost-benefit analysis to every different prevention work, we may more clearly understand which methods are most effective. Thus, through the application of this model, not only can we promote the effects of debris flow hazard defense, but also reduce the squandering of resources used against natural disasters. In addition the loss of residents’ lives and property can be lowered.誌謝-----------------------------------------------------一 中文摘要-------------------------------------------------四 英文摘要-------------------------------------------------五 目錄-----------------------------------------------------七 圖目錄-------------------------------------------------一一 表目錄-------------------------------------------------一五 第壹章 緒論--------------------------------------------1 1.1前言---------------------------------------------------1 1.2研究目的及方法-----------------------------------------2 1.3研究架構-----------------------------------------------4 第貳章 台灣之土石流防災制度-------------------------------7 2.1山坡地管理制度之變遷-----------------------------------7 2.2土石流特定水土保持區劃定之制度------------------------14 2.2.1國內法令依據--------------------------------------14 2.2.2法規劃定的方式------------------------------------15 2.3以往土石流特定水土保持區劃定之執行情況----------------17 2.4土石流特定水土保持區劃定之問題分析--------------------19 2.4.1特定區的劃定對民眾財產權的影響----------------------20 2.4.2限制發展區劃定有無相關配套措施的討論----------------21 2.4.3過去政府執行不彰所造成的影響------------------------22 2.5 本章結論---------------------------------------------24 第叁章 制度執行的交易成本--------------------------------25 3.1交易成本和制度的關係----------------------------------25 3.2外部性理論應用於交易成本的評估方式-- -----------------27 3.2.1文獻回顧--------------------------------------------27 3.2.2外部性理論的介紹------------------------------------28 3.2.3補償方式之分析--------------------------------------34 3.3本章結論----------------------------------------------37 第肆章 土石流災損評估------------------------------------38 4.1前言--------------------------------------------------38 4.2文獻回顧----------------------------------------------39 4.2.1災害損失之定義及分類--------------------------------39 4.2.2直接損失的文獻--------------------------------------40 4.2.3間接損失的文獻--------------------------------------43 4.3土石流災害損失之計算----------------------------------46 4.3.1 淹埋深度和損失程度之判定---------------------------47 4.3.2土石流潛勢區之土地分類------------------------------51 4.3.3直接損失的計算--------------------------------------54 4.3.4間接損失的計算--------------------------------------72 4.4案例分析--以台中縣松鶴部落之土石流災害為例-----------107 4.4.1災害直接損失之計算---------------------------------107 4.4.2災害間接損失之計算---------------------------------118 4.5本章結論---------------------------------------------123 第伍章 土石流影響範圍之計算-----------------------------124 5.1前言-------------------------------------------------124 5.2文獻回顧---------------------------------------------124 5.3數值方法之應用介紹-----------------------------------126 5.3.1基本資料蒐集與現場調查-----------------------------127 5.3.2數值地形之處理-------------------------------------134 5.3.3土石流體積量的估算---------------------------------135 5.3.4土石流潛勢範圍之計算-------------------------------145 5.4案例分析--以台北021高潛勢土石流潛勢溪流為例----------146 5.4.1土石流基本調查-------------------------------------146 5.4.2數值地形的處理-------------------------------------148 5.4.3土石流體積量推估-----------------------------------149 5.4.4土石流影響範圍的計算結果---------------------------150 5.5 本章結論--------------------------------------------150 第陸章 土石流防災制度之成本效益分析---------------------152 6.1土石流災害之風險分析---------------------------------152 6.1.1 風險分析的文獻------------------------------------152 6.1.2 土石流之風險估算----------------------------------156 6.2案例分析---------------------------------------------162 6.2.1案例1--以花蓮銅門土石流特定水土保區為--------------162 6.2.2 案例2--以台北021土石流潛勢溪流為例----------------185 6.2.3 兩種防災方法結合之分析----------------------------239 6.3 本章結論--------------------------------------------248 第柒章 結論與建議---------------------------------------251 7.1結論-------------------------------------------------251 7.2建議-------------------------------------------------255 參考文獻------------------------------------------------2563042926 bytesapplication/pdfen-US土石流災損評估直接損失間接損失成本效益分析Debris flowdisaster assessmentdisaster direct lossdisaster indirect losscost-benefit assessmentthesishttp://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw/bitstream/246246/50202/1/ntu-95-D89521010-1.pdf