2009-08-012024-05-17https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/683084摘要：隨著全球氣候變遷，極端水文事件出現的頻率相對的將越來越頻繁，在此一條件下，面臨水資源的相對匱乏，大規模的水源調配措施在未來難以避免，而缺乏規劃的水源調配，會使得下游水文條件改變，造成生態上的重大影響。除了在工程面上，在管理操作層面，如何在滿足供水需求之外，來能保有現有生態的永續條件，在研究與實務方面都是相當重要的議題。傳統概念多僅考慮河川保留基流量，但實際經驗卻發覺縱然保留基流量，下游生態卻依然發生重大的改變。本研究基於此一考量，計畫藉由歷史水流條件，去計算不同的水文改變指標（Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration, IHA）的水文參數來評估河川流量在量、時間、頻率、期距及變化率的改變情況，再進一步利用統計方法去計算改變上的時間點（Changing point），印證在過去發生的水文事件、工程事件等，來瞭解各種人為干擾所造成河川生態上之主要影響，藉以降低水資源規劃管理上對環境之衝擊，而達到環境永續的目標。<br> Abstract: change. It is very possible to have more droughts in some areas in near future. To avoid the regional water shortage, large scale water diversion is necessary. However, the water diversion operation always causes significant impact to downstream ecosystem. Understanding the impact to ecosystem due to human interference and hydrologic change is essential for developing a better operating policy of water diversion. For this reason, this study will assess the change of flow regime according to historical hydrologic data. The Indicators of Hydrologic Alterations （IHA） program will be applied to quantify hydrologic alterations prior to and after the change points to gain a better understanding of human interferences, such as flow diversion, creation of levee and drainage districts, and lock and dam construction, and the degree of hydrologic alterations that would impact river ecosystems.極端水文事件水文改變指標變異點IHAChanging point