陳郁蕙2006-07-262018-06-292006-07-262018-06-291999-07-31http://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw//handle/246246/19617「水旱田利用調整計劃」中之休耕補 貼措施自1998 年開始實施，施行至今為時 尚短，雖然農政單位已有一套休耕補貼之 標準，但此標準如何制訂？何種休耕補貼 水準才算合理？如何訂定適當之休耕補貼 水準才能使稻農生產決策與政府「供需平 衡」之目標相配合？這一系列之問題實有 待審慎思考。而本文之主要目的即在於建 立一套以經濟理論為基礎之模型，以探討 上述問題。在假設農民可對價格與單位面 積產量進行預期及預期價格與預期單位面 積產量間存有線性關係之假設下，利用二 元常態分配可推導出在價格與生產風險 下，農民單位面積收益之機率密度函數。 而本文亦放寬Fraser(1993)之單位面積生產 成本為常數之假設，令單位面積生產成本 與單位面積產量具相關性，再以二階泰勒 展開式將其展開。而在稻農預期效用極大 之假設，確切導出休耕補貼水準與休耕比 例間之關係，利用此一關係式即可對休耕 補貼措施進行實證分析。本文在理論部分 貢獻為將價格風險與生產風險同時納入模 型中，並將現行休耕補貼與保價收購措施 融入，不但對農民生產決策有較完整之考 量，更能以較具體之方式表達比例與補貼 水準間之關係。雖然本文主要貢獻是在於 理論模型之發展，但在實證研究估得之休 耕補貼水準可作為未來補貼標準制訂之參 考。These couple years, the set-aside policy has been introduced as a major policy scheme to process the structural adjustment of the Taiwanese rice production to achieve the so called supply-demand balance. Under the set-aside policy, rice growers will get the set-aside premium for each unit of land idled. The intriguing questions are how to decide the optimal level of set-aside premium? How much the government should pay to achieve the policy goal? The objective of this research is to develop a theoretical model to decide the optimal level of set-aside premium that will provide enough incentive for farmers to idle part of their land and achieve the policy goal in the domestic rice industry. The research steps are as follows. First, the current set aside policy has been taken into account in the rice farmer’s profit function. Second, the theoretical model for the setaside policy has been developed under the assumption of expected utility maximization. Third, a numerical method was employed to evaluate the model followed by some empirical analyses.application/pdf58598 bytesapplication/pdfzh-TW國立臺灣大學農業經濟學系暨研究所休耕補貼休耕比例農民預期 毛收益生產風險保證價格Set-aside PremiumPercentage of Set Aside, Expected Gross ReturnPrice SupportProduction Uncertaintyjournal articlehttp://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw/bitstream/246246/19617/1/882415H002026.pdf