臺灣大學: 環境工程學研究所闕蓓德; 駱尚廉鍾寧心Chung, Ning-HsinNing-HsinChung2013-04-102018-06-282013-04-102018-06-282010http://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw//handle/246246/257057本研究之目的係為探討氣候變遷對於翡翠水庫集水區營養鹽負荷之影響，並建立一早期預警指標EWI (Early Warning Index)，提供水質管理者預先因應氣候變遷對於集水區營養鹽之可能衝擊。本研究應用台灣地區水資源氣候變遷模式TaiWAP (Taiwan Water Resources Assessment Program to Climate Change) 及水質水理模式GWLF (Generalized Watershed Loading Function) 量化氣候變遷對翡翠水庫集水區總氮、總磷輸出量之未來衝擊，並以總量管制之概念，建立EWI以評估其衝擊大小，最後進一步提出集水區水質管理調適策略。為比較不同氣候變遷情境，選用了兩個大氣環流模式 (General Circulation Model, GCM) 及三個溫室氣體排放情境 (Special Report on Emission Scenarios, SRES)，預測三個時期的總氮及總磷輸出量，共計十八個情境，與基期分別做比較。 結果顯示氣候變遷會導致枯水期流量大幅減少0.2%~43.9%，而氣候變遷對流量豐、枯水期分佈之影響大於其對流量年總變化量之影響。EWI值預測結果顯示目前翡翠水庫集水區之總氮均可符合涵容能力，而總磷之EWI值則於基期即高於1，未來的EWI值更快速上升，因此，翡翠水庫集水區長期水質有惡化之趨勢，總磷未來輸出量在較悲觀之A2溫室氣體排放情境下，枯水期間之水質可能面臨嚴重危機。本研究針對翡翠水庫集水區土地利用規劃所提出之建議為縮減旱田、果園、茶園、檳榔之耕種面積，並將縮減面積改為林地種植。經土地利用規劃調適後，豐水期總磷輸出量皆可在涵容能力內，枯水期EWI值雖仍高於1，但和原土地利用之EWI值相比有下降之趨勢。Dynamic modeling and an Early Warning Index (EWI) were used to quantify the impact of projected climate change on streamflow and nutrients export from Fei-tsui reservoir watershed in northern Taiwan. The Taiwan Water Resources Assessment Program to Climate Change (TaiWAP) and the Generalized Watershed Loading Functions (GWLF) models were chosen as dynamic modeling tool. To explore the impacts under different climate change conditions, three scenarios (A2, A1B and B1) of IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) with two General Circulation Models were employed to drive the climate simulations. The results showed that, the streamflow will significantly decreases in dry season under climate change in Fei-tsui reservoir watershed. This trend indicates that climate change has more impact on changing the seasonal distributions than on altering average annual amount of the streamflow and nutrient loading. Based on the results, EWI of total phosphorus loading is greatly higher than EWI of total nitrogen loading. The results indicated that total phosphorus loading under A2 scenario in dry season in the period of year 2079~2099 will be the worst scenario for water quality in Fei-tsui Reservoir watershed. The mitigation management strategy is to change the land use type and area of Fei-tsui Reservoir watershed, suggestion would be to transfer the agriculture area to forest, the results indicated that it is an effective strategy, EWI reduced after the applying the strategy.3965472 bytesapplication/pdfen-US早期預警指標TaiWAPGWLF大氣環流模式溫室氣體排放情境EWIGCMsSRES[SDGs]SDG13[SDGs]SDG15thesishttp://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw/bitstream/246246/257057/1/ntu-99-R97541201-1.pdf