2013-03-192024-05-16https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/667469摘要：本計畫將配合中央氣象局預報精緻化的目標，發展適用台灣地區之鄉鎮尺度颱風降雨與台灣附近海域風力的預報技術；全程計畫預計三年完成，本年為第二年。第一年之計畫利用李（2009，2010，2011）完成之動力模式控制組模擬結果的風力資訊，與實際觀測進行分析比較，並利用控制組及系集模擬結果，建立台灣附近海面風力之動力統計預報模式。本年計畫將改進該模式之背景資料庫，並用以改善現行模式中歷史個案之選取方式所導致之誤差，以增加模式之穩定度。另一方面，將利用實際颱風個案之觀測資料，針對所建立之風力動力統計預報模式進行校驗，了解模式對不同類型颱風預報能力之差異及造成模式誤差之原因。<br> Abstract: The purpose of this project is to develop an integrated forecasting technique for the city/town-scale typhoon rainfall in Taiwan area and the sea surface wind speed near Taiwan, to help meet the goal of the operational requirement of the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) during the typhoon warning period. This is the second year of a three-year project. In the first year of this project, the wind speeds of the control runs of Lee（2009, 2010, 2011）were compared to the wind observations. The output of the control runs and the ensemble runs were used to develop a dynamic-statistical model for forecasting the surface wind speed over ocean near Taiwan. In this year, we will try to improve the data base of the model and to reduce the problem caused by the selection procedure of historical cases in the model. The aim is to increase the model stability. In addition, the verification of the model will be carried out, thereby understanding the model capability in forecasting different types of typhoon.鄉鎮尺度風力預報