2009-08-012024-05-17https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/691678摘要：暴雨時期地表水與下水道內之水流交換頻繁，地表因可能跨區漫淹而沒有清楚的集水區邊界，因此都市積淹水的即時模擬，必須在利用精密降水估計結果估計地表逕流後，同時考量地表水與下水道垂直方向及都市區塊間水平方向的交換機制，才能得到合理的計算結果。 由於都市地文條件複雜且缺乏經常性觀測且不受迴水影響的流量站，傳統集水區降雨轉換為逕流歷線的經驗方法不能適用，必須透過密集水文試驗方可取得高時間、空間解析度之經驗關係。本研究擬使用地貌型模式與SWMM RUNOFF模組分別估計山區逕流與都市地表逕流，並採用黑盒分析法配合即時水位觀測資料，發展推估無密集水文觀測集水區降雨－逕流經驗關係的方法。 由於降雨觀測和降雨—逕流歷線演算均存在不確定性，其影響都將反映在下水道水理模式模擬結果之中。加上都市集水區面積小、渠道管網容量小的特性，模擬計算結果與觀測資料的誤差往往不可忽略。本計畫擬藉由以NewC數值法開發之下水道管網與市街流聯合演算模式，採用資料同化技術，結合伴隨狀態法(adjoint state method，簡稱ASM)與「擬牛頓法(quasi-Newton method)」，利用下水道水位觀測資料修正模式狀態，避免因為不確定因素的影響使誤差持續累積。 本研究將以台北市中港抽水站之集水範圍進行模式測試與結果分析，並評估模式平行化計算之可行性。最後對於建置「都市積淹水即時預報系統」提供詳實之建議。 <br> Abstract: In urban area, 2-way vertical flow between surface runoff and storm sewer is not rare. Horizontal exchange among urban catchments may also occur during inundation. A storm sewer numerical model must have the capability to simulate these situations to be able to correctly reproduce inundation events. Owing to the complex land-use, the lack of densed gauging stations and back-water effect in urban sewer system, the rainfall-runoff black-box relationships cannot be derived in the current sewer system. Intensive Observation Experiments are needed to establish them. In this study, water stage gauges will be constructed n sewer system, and the observation data are to be utilized to adjust the runoff hydrographs derived from the terrain-based runoff model and SWMM RUNOFF module. For the catchment areas and the storage capacities are small for urban sewer, simnulated stage hydrographs using observed rainfall may differ from the measured ones. In order to avoid error accumulation, a data-assimilation scheme using the adjoint state method and quasi-Newton solution technique are to be developed for the coupled model of sewer pipe and urban street flow. Lateral discharge is considered uncertain and can be adjusted such that the differences between the observed and simulated stage are minimized. The catchment area of Jhonggang pumping station in Taipei City is chosen be the case study area. Feasibility of parallel computation using PC cluster will be studied. Results of this research will be used to provide sensible suggestions for establishing a `real-time urban inundation forecast system`.NewC法地貌型逕流模式市街流與下水道水理數值模式資料同化伴隨狀態法都市積淹水即時預報系統NewC schemeterrain-based runoff modelSWMM RUNOFFurban street flow and storm sewer pipe flow modeldata assimilationadjoint state methodurban inundation forecast system