蔡啟良2006-07-262018-07-092006-07-262018-07-092002http://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw//handle/246246/16268本計劃主要是想根據壽險公司保單在未來一段期間(如20 年或30 年)的現金流量，計算每 一年度的盈餘，以檢測其清償能力，作為早期預警系統的一部分。首先，建立一套盈餘之精 算模型，依照適當合理的精算假設，計算保單的現金流入(即資產，如保費收入和投資收入等) 和現金流出(即負債，如責任準備金、營業費用、死亡理賠、解約金支出等)，再得出未來該 期間每一年度的盈餘，並畫出盈餘曲線，觀察此盈餘曲線可以有效判斷清償能力是否健全。This project is to test solvency by calculating the projected surplus of a life insurance company’s policies for each year according to corresponding cash flow during a specified period (e.g. 20 or 30 years). First, we will build an actuarial model for surplus, then calculate policies’ cash inflow (i.e. asset, e.g. premium income and investment gain etc.) and cash outflow (i.e. liabilities, e.g. reserves, expenses, claim and surrender cash values etc.) by appropriate and reasonable actuarial assumptions to obtain the projected surplus for each year of the specified period and draw the surplus curve. Observing the surplus curve can effectively determine if the policies’solvency sound.application/pdf139431 bytesapplication/pdfzh-TW國立臺灣大學財務金融學系暨研究所reporthttp://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw/bitstream/246246/16268/1/902416H002027.pdf