2017-05-262024-05-17https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/684604摘要：區域經濟整合（Regional Integration）已成為當前全球經貿自由化的主流趨勢，各國紛紛對外洽簽「 自由貿易協定」（Free Trade Agreement, FTA）及「 經濟合作協議」（Economic Cooperation Agreement, ECA），以廣深化彼此間之經貿關係。 在1948至1994年間，關稅及貿易總協定（General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, GATT）收到124份關於區域貿易協定（Regional Trade Agreements, RTA）的通報，自1995年世界貿組織（World Trade Organization, WTO）成立以來，已額外接到超過400項涉及貨品或服務貿易的協議通報，截至2016年9月1日通報數達635份，且有267個區域貿易協定（RTAs）已生效。 多邊經濟體系（如跨太平洋夥伴協定）似乎面臨瓶頸，由美國貿易代表署（Office of the United States Trade Representative, USTR）於今（2017）年3月2日公布之「 2017年美國總統貿易政策推動重點」（President`s National Trade Policy Agenda for 2017）中提及，美國在退出跨太平洋夥伴協定（Trans-Pacific Partnership, TPP）後，美國已確認未來將和其他跨太平洋夥伴協定（TPP）國家進行雙邊談判，且其總統已開始與國會協商，討論如何使未來貿易協定比過去更為有效益，也承諾預計在不久將來會有更積極的行動力。由此可觀察出，未來雙邊及複邊之區域經濟整合型態將可能成為貿易新途徑，而自由貿易協定及經濟合作協議在全球貿易體系的重要性亦不斷提升。 因此為因應全球經貿自由化的發展趨勢，我國必須積極參與區域經濟整合，以面對經貿自由化新局勢下我國農業部門之影響，持續追蹤與評估，主要的考量為避免僅區域內成員享有優惠等形成的自由貿易區對我之排擠，且更重要的目的在於維持我國已經融入的全球價值鏈與供應鏈體系，重點加強輔導出口強項農產品建立品牌及整合行銷，吸引產業投資，並結合臺灣農產加工技術，擴大臺灣農產品在貿易夥伴國家的市場機會，並創造更優良的投資環境有助中小農企業走向國際市場。此外，臺灣農業屬自然資源有限、必須利用國際市場的小型經濟體，如果臺灣不重視及積極參與，未來我國在此供應鏈體系中既有的地位很可能被他國取代，故本研究擬持續蒐集掌握相關即時資訊。 蒐集與分析主要貿易夥伴（日本、澳大利亞及美國)在其農業的因應戰略、農業總體進攻與防守對策、農業總體因應對策，研析可供我國借鏡之作法；並透過美國德州農工大學合作研發建&#63991;臺灣地區農業部門模型（Taiwan Agricultural Sectoral Model, TASM）與臺灣漁業部門模型（Taiwan Fishery Sectoral Model, TFSM），探討研析我國洽簽自由貿易協定之模擬情境，各種可能農產品關稅的進一步調降等對我國農業的影響及利弊衝擊評估；且依據雙邊之區域經濟整合趨勢，研擬我國因應經貿自由化之農業戰略，並採用與美國普渡大學（Purdue university）全球貿易研究中心（Center for Global Trade Analysis）、澳大利亞農業與資源經濟局（ABARE） 等國際知名研發單位合作研發之全球貿易分析（Global Trade Analysis Project, GTAP）模型做為政策模擬分析之工具評估農業部門之產業鏈之影響評估。 本計畫時配合施政的需求，因應我國洽簽自由貿易協定下，研析其對總體經濟、農業整體產業與各相關產業部門的效果，並參考主要貿易夥伴之經驗，蒐集可供我國借鏡之作法，且加強國內外相關模型及資訊的交流與整合，完成最終報告撰寫，提供必要的模擬評估及決策支援。而未來預期效益包含：1.蒐集分析我國主要貿易夥伴（如日本、澳大利亞及美國) 近年經濟發展情況及產業發展趨勢，與其在區域或雙邊經貿協定談判之參與情形及談判策略，並針對近年來農業貿易進行趨勢分析，並評估雙方產業互競與互補之比較利益。2.評估我國與主要貿易夥伴洽簽雙邊自由貿易協定對我農業部門之可能衝擊與預期利益。 <br> Abstract: Regional Integration has already become the main trend of current global economic and trade liberalization. Various countries have signed the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) and the Economic Cooperation Agreement (ECA) to deepen their economic and trade relations. Between 1948 and 1994, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) received 124 notifications of Regional Trade Agreements (RTA). Since the establishment of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 1995, more than 400 agreement notifications on trade in goods or services have been received, with 635 notifications as of September 1, 2016, and 267 RTAs have entered into force. As a result of the bottleneck faced by the multilateral economic system bottleneck (such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement), this year (2017) on March 2, the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) published the “President’s National Trade Policy Agenda for 2017.” After withdrawing from the TPP, the U.S. has confirmed that it will hold bilateral negotiations with other TPP countries, and the president has begun discussion with Congress on how to make future trade agreements more effective, and is also expected to have more aggressive action in the near future. It can be observed that future bilateral and complex regional economic integration patterns will likely become a new way of trade, and free trade agreements and economic cooperation agreements are continually increasing in importance within the global trade system. Therefore, in response to the development trend of global economic and trade liberalization, Taiwan must actively participate in regional economic integration, to face the new situation of effects of economic and trade liberalization on Taiwan’s agricultural sector. Following this, tracking and assessment will be conducted, mainly to avoid being excluded from the benefits received by regional trade members, and even more important is to maintain the global value chain and supply chain system that has been integrated into our country, focusing on strengthening the guidance of export strengths of agricultural products to establish a brand and integrated marketing, as well as attracting industry investment and combining Taiwan’s agricultural processing technology to expand the trading partner market opportunities of Taiwan’s agricultural products, and create a better investment environment to help small and medium enterprises reach the international market. In addition, Taiwan’s agriculture is a limited natural resource so it is necessary to use the international market of small economies; if Taiwan does not place importance on and actively participate, in the future, Taiwan is likely to be replaced by other countries in the supply chain system, so this study will continue to collect relevant information. Through cooperation in research and development with the U.S. Texas A&M University, the Taiwan Agricultural Sectoral Model (TASM) and Taiwan Fishery Sectoral Model (TFSM) were established to explore simulations of Taiwan’s Free Trade Agreement, and assess the impacts resulting from various possibilities of tariff reductions, etc. on Taiwan’s agriculture; also collect and analyze the main trading partners (Japan, Australia, and the U.S..) in their agricultural response strategy, overall agricultural offensive and defensive countermeasures, research available for our practice; based on the trend of bilateral economic integration, develop Taiwan’s agricultural strategy of economic and trade liberalization, and using and working with the world renowned Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) and U.S.’s Purdue University’s Center for Global Trade Analysis, to develop the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model as a tool for policy simulation analysis to assess the impact of the agricultural sector’s industrial chain. This project is suited for the needs of governance, in response to Taiwan’s free trade agreement, to further research and analyze the impact on the overall economy, the agricultural industry, and other related industries. Additionally, through this project we can learn from the experience of other trading partners, collect practices for use in our country, and strengthen the exchange and integration of relevant models and information both domestically and abroad, complete the writing of a final report, and to provide immediate and the necessary simulation assessment and decision support. The future expected benefits include: 1. Collect and analyze the economic and industrial development trends of Taiwan’s major trading partners (such as Japan, Australia, and the U.S.) in recent years, and their participation and negotiation strategies in regional or bilateral economic trade agreements, and analysis of agricultural trade trends in recent years, and assess the comparative interests of both competing and complementary industries. 2. Assess the possible impacts and expected benefits of bilateral free trade agreements with Taiwan’s major trading partners on the agricultural sector.