國立臺灣大學農業經濟學系; ?華科技大學企管學系Department of Agricultural Economics, National Taiwan University; Department of Business Administration, Lung Hwa University of Science and Technology蕭清仁黃聖茹Show, C.R.C.R.ShowHuang, S.J.S.J.Huang2017-09-082018-06-292017-09-082018-06-292008-06http://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw//handle/246246/282162台灣於2002 ?加入世界貿?組織（WTO）後，逐?調?肉品進口關稅，將直接衝擊到國內肉品市場，對台灣畜禽產業將面?重大的挑戰。本研究以國內畜禽產業為對象，採用1981 ?至2004 ?台灣肉品價格與產?及相關變??資?，應用計?模型分析國內畜禽市場結構，並?用高斯－?德爾法（Gauss-Seidel method）估計移去各種關稅，對畜禽產業的影響效果，藉以評估關稅調?對國內畜禽產業之衝擊。實證結果顯示，?台灣畜禽產業的外在條件均保持2004 ?水準，關稅由2004 ?水準?為10％，毛豬產地價格每公斤下?0.32 元或0.67％，每?供應?保持2004 ?水準; ?售價格每公斤下?0.41 元或0.31％; 每人每?消費?增加0.51 公斤或1.22％; 每?進口??增加4,990 公噸或1.69％; 毛豬飼?價格將下?0.139 元。在肉雞產業方面，白色肉雞產地價格每公斤下?0.43 元或1.61％，有色肉雞1.2 元或2.98％; 供應??者分別下?1.91％及1.32％; ?者?售價格每公斤分別下?1.5 元或2.2％及3.0 元或2.8％; 平均每人每?雞肉消費?分別增加0.01 公斤或0.07％及0.47 公斤或3.48％; 平均每?雞肉進口?將增加19.19％; 肉雞飼?價格將下?0.0209 。?關稅由10％再?為5％，對毛豬產業的影響?大，仍處於薄?生產情況。肉雞產業國內供應?減少或進口?增加的幅?均明顯大於毛豬產業，業者每公斤將虧損5-6 元，產業結構須調整，規模小或成本高之肉雞業者將?開此產業。Being a member of the WTO from 2002, Taiwan should phase out the import tariffs of meat. And it impacts on domestic livestock and poultry industry. This study applies the econometric model to analysis domestic livestock and poultry market structure, and uses the Gauss-Seidel method to estimate its impact effect by the annual data of Taiwan poultry quantities, price and related variables from 1981 through 2004. From the empirical results, if other things being equal on Taiwan’s livestock and poultry industry in 2004, we could know the case that meat’s tariff remain 10%, the farm prices of hogs would decrease 0.32 dollars per kilogram or 0.67%; quantities supplied will be the same as that in 2004; retail price would decrease 0.31%; quantities demanded would increase 1.22%; pork import would increase 1.69% and prices of mixed feed for hogs decrease 0.139 dollars per kilogram. The farm prices of both broiler and colorful broiler would decrease 1.61% and 2.98%; the quantities of both broiler and colorful broiler would decrease 1.91% and 1.32%; retail price decrease 2.2% and 2.8%; quantities demand increase 0.07% and 3.48%; broiler import increase 19.19%; prices of mixed Feed for broiler decrease 0.0209 dollars per kilogram. If the meat’s tariff goes down 5%, the profit in livestock industry would decline to little, the producers would loss 5-6 dollars per kilogram and this would force Taiwan poultry industry to adjust.24281329 bytesapplication/pdf經濟自由化禽畜產業高斯—賽德爾法Free tradeLivestock and poultry industryGauss-Seidel methodjournal articlehttp://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw/bitstream/246246/282162/1/0040_200806_4.pdf