2012-03-222024-05-17https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/681369摘要：目前氣候變遷相關的研究均指出，未來極端降雨事件發生頻率的增加趨勢已日益顯著。而在氣候變遷對未來坡地災害的影響方面，除與極端降雨事件發生頻率有關外，亦與人口及經濟發展極為相關。因此在評估氣候變遷對坡地災害發生潛勢的影響時，除未來降雨的評估外，尚需結合區內人口或經濟發展的相關資訊，才能藉此提供較完整的防災規劃策略。爰此，本研究選定高屏溪及陳有蘭溪流域為研究區域，透過水文、地文及保全對象資料的蒐集與地表覆蓋的判釋，建立崩塌及土石流發生潛勢影響評估模式。然後，配合未來情境的資料，進行氣候變遷對高屏溪及陳有蘭溪流域未來崩塌及土石流等坡地災害發生潛勢的影響評估，並據此提出因應的調適策略予未來防災規劃研擬或調整之參考。<br> Abstract: According to the studies of climate change at present, increase rainfall in the future is getting more apparent. Effects of climate change on slopeland disasters in the future are related not only the frequency of extreme rainfall but also population and economy development. Therefore , to evaluate the effects of climate change on the potential of slopeland disasters , it is necessary to evaluate the effects of rainfall and the information related to population and economy development , so that slopeland disaster prevention plan may be better proposed . Hence, in this study, the watersheds of Kaoping stream and Chenyulan stream are selected as the study sites, the information of hydrology , physiographic, population and economy in the sites are to be collected , and surface cover are to be recognized to establish models for evaluating the potential of landslides and debris flows . Then, the information of future scenario are used to access the effects of climate change on the slopeland disasters of landslides and debris flows in the watersheds of Kaoping stream and Chenyulan stream in the future . Finally, according to the findings in this study, the strategies are to be proposed to make or adjust plans for slopeland disaster prevention.