2011-01-012024-05-17https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/681819摘要：本計畫將配合中央氣象局颱風預警作業需求，發展適用台灣地區之鄉鎮尺度颱風降雨整合預報技術，並建置校驗系統，以提供即時誤差評估；全程計畫預計三年完成，本年為第三年。本年計畫將完成近20年9大類路徑侵台颱風之控制組及系集成員模擬，並最佳化前兩年建立之預報指引系統。進一步，實際應用預報指引系統於侵台颱風之雨量預報，並評估、改進此動力統計預報指引系統，以協助中央氣象局提升颱風定量降雨預報之準確度。同時，與氣象局上線之作業系統結合，並完成建置校驗系統，以提供即時誤差評估。 <br> Abstract: The purpose of this project is to develop an integrated forecasting technique for the city/town-scale typhoon rainfall in Taiwan area, to fulfill the operational equirement of the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) during the typhoon warning period. This is the third year of a three-year project. In this year, all typhoons with track type 1-9 will be simulated using existing meso-scale dynamic models. In addition, several ensemble runs will be conducted to obtain meso-scale rainfall distributions over Taiwan for typhoons with different intensity and size under similar environmental conditions, and the forecast system we proposed in past two years will be optimized. Next, the forecast guidance for the dynamic-statistical scheme to predict the city/town-scale typhoon rainfall will be completed. The forecast guidance will also be integrated into the CWB operational system. In addition, an on-line real-time evaluation system will be developed to calculate the forecast errors during the real-time operation.鄉鎮尺度颱風降雨動力模式動力統計預報指引系統city/town-scaletyphoonmeso-scale dynamic modeldynamic-statistical scheme