2012-08-012024-05-13https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/652915摘要：2007年政府間氣候變化專門委員會（IPCC）第四次評估報告（AR4）指出：全球暖化已經是國際性的問題。而了解氣候變遷所帶來的影響，我們需要氣候模式能產生更準確的預報。然而AR4中所用來預報氣候的全球環流模式（GCM）並不能成功的預報重要的氣候變數，其中包含多重尺度的大氣對流、極端降水事件以及地表水循環。此外，我們不能準確地預報大氣環流的年際變化主要的原因來自海洋模式不能成功地模擬大尺度海洋環流。以上種種的模式問題是氣候預報不確定性的主要原因。本計劃將著重模式的發展以減少氣候預報的不確定性。發展的項目包含大氣模式中濕對流的統合參數化、地表水文模式以及海洋環流模式。針對的問題包含西方邊界流如灣流或黑潮的年際變化、使用衛星遙測資料來研究地表及地下水文對氣候變遷的影響。為了研究極端降水在氣候變遷中災害減輕的角色，本計劃將會分析台灣地區過去50年中極端事件的每小時雨量資料並且使用本計劃所發展的雲模式來進行個案模擬，並進一步了解極端降水與地表水文／地下水模式的交互作用。<br> Abstract: In year 2007, the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicated the importance of global warming in worldwide issues. To understand the climate change and its impact require accurate predictions with climate models. However, the present climate models, such as the general circulation models (GCMs) used in the AR4, cannot successfully simulate atmospheric convection in many scales, extreme precipitation, and land surface hydrological effects. Moreover, the atmospheric decadal variation of climate is not simulated well due to the fact that oceanic circulations are not properly modeled. The inadequacy of modeling these phenomena brings uncertainties to the climate forecasts as well as extreme weather estimations. This project will focus on developing numerical models to reduce those climate uncertainties, which include the development of unified physical parameterizations of GCM model, a land and hydrological surface model, and an oceanic circulation model. In particular, we will study the western boundary current such as Gulf Stream or Kuroshio Current on their decadal variations. Moreover, we will improve the land surface model from the satellite remote sensing data and to study land surface and/or groundwater memory to the climate change. The extreme precipitation is an essential element in disaster-mitigation in climate change. This project will analyze extreme events from 50 years of hourly precipitation data and to study these events by the cloud convection models developed in this project. We will also study the extreme precipitation interaction with the land surface and/or ground water model.多重尺度模擬全球環流模式海洋全球環流模式雲解析模式水文模式濕對流西方邊界流極端降水地表水傳送氣侯變遷Multi-scale modelinggeneral circulation model (GCM)oceanic general circulation model (OGCM)cloud-resolving model (CRM)land surface/ground water hydrological modelmoist convectionwestern boundary currentextreme precipitationground water tra