2016-08-012024-05-17https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/680711摘要：中國 (上海)自由貿易試驗區 (China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone, SPFTZ) 於 2013年9月29 日掛牌迄今已歷二年。雖以貿易為名，但最令人感到興趣的卻是金融改革試驗的部份，其成敗也將對臺灣實體與金融產業產生很大影響。不論中國大陸金融改革進度是快或慢，對於臺灣而言都代表了商機，然而若未能根據數據資訊正確掌握其實際政策走向 (de facto)，而僅聽信其政策法規 (de jure) 甚至宣傳，卻很可能使臺灣不論在官方與民間決策上，與對岸實際狀況對接時產生落差，進而使我方所承受的風險與損失均大為提高。本研究的目的，在於根據上述經驗、近期局勢與實證數據分析，使用隨機水準變動自我迴歸模型 (Random level-shift autoregressive model, RLAR)，檢驗與資本金融帳關係密切的變數，進一步思考探索包括：(1)中國改革開放迄今，發生過哪幾次實際的金融結構性轉變？其政治與經濟意涵為何？(2)在SPFTZ成立之後，是否如同部份實證文獻所述，對於中國的資本金融帳再次產生實質的影響與轉變？(3)歷次重要解除管制舉動，是否有助於實質經濟成長？資本自由移動與經濟成長有無相關性？<br> Abstract: The most important part of the China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone (SPFTZ) is the degree of financial liberalization, which has a great impact on Taiwan’s economy. However, it is hard to imagine that China will give up its state-own financial institutions and fully open its financial sector to the world, even if RMB will be in the basket of Special Drawing Rights (SDR) in 2016. This research would like to use a random level-shift autoregressive approach (RLAR) to test the variables related to capital and financial account liberalization, and then explores (1) the structural breaks of the Chinese financial reform since 1979 and their economic and political implications; (2) whether SPFTZ is also an important breaking point. What is its impact on Chinese financial liberalization? (3) whether we can find a causality between financial deregulation and economic growth according to China’s history since 1979. What is the role of SPFTZ on China’s future economic development?上海自貿區資本與金融帳隨機水準變動自我迴歸模型 (RLAR)中國經濟SPFTZcapital and financial accountRLARChinese economy