童慶斌臺灣大學：生物環境系統工程學研究所周玫君Chou, Mei-ChiunMei-ChiunChou2007-11-272018-06-292007-11-272018-06-292004http://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw//handle/246246/56095近年人為活動排放大量溫室氣體至大氣中，加強了溫室效應及全球暖化，導致氣候變遷，連帶影響台灣氣候與水文有極端化發展之趨勢，對我國農業也造成影響，而水稻為我國相當重要之農業作物，農業用水標的中灌溉用水量更佔了所有用水量之六成，本文為了解氣候變遷對水稻產能之衝擊，以全球環流模式（General Circulation models, GCMs）氣候變遷預測氣候資料，模擬未來水稻潛能產量變化之趨勢，並針對模擬結果及過程所遭遇之困難與不確定性提出建議。 另有關灌溉用水部分，影響層級達產業及民生，而近年來乾旱事件頻傳，調度及支援民生用水或工業用水不可避免，但目前調用制度及使用者付費機制尚有不足，而過去有關水市場交易機制等之研究，侷限於成本效益分析之考量，與預測氣候資料沒有連動性，因此本研究利用CERES-Rice生理模式模擬淡水河流域稻米灌區在不同灌溉方式下產量與灌溉用水之對應關係，據以建立農業灌溉用水產值評估，以作為用水管理之建議。Greenhouse gases emitted into the atmosphere enhance the greenhouse effects and result in global warming. Taiwan is also under the influence of these climatic changes. The resulting extremely climatic and hydrologic changes impose significant influence on the local agriculture. The irrigation of rice, one of the most important crops in Taiwan, contributes more than 60% of water consumption. In order to investigate the impact of climatic changes on rice production, the meteorological data predicted by General Circulation Models (GCMs) is used to simulate the trend of rice production change in this study. All simulated results, difficulties, and uncertainties are all depicted in this work. Irrigation water consumption is important to the water allocation in both industrial and domestic sectors. In recent years, the frequent occurring drought events make it necessary to share the water resource to the domestic and industrial sectors from the agriculture sector. However, this sharing system is still lack of the user-pay mechanism. The reported trading mechanisms for water market are limited to the consideration of cost-effective analysis, are not relevant to the predicted meteorological data. Therefore, CERES-Rice model is used in this study to simulate the relationship between rice production and irrigation water amount for Tan-Shei River basin under different irrigation situations. Simulated results further serve as the basis to evaluate the monetary production of agriculture irrigation water use. These information can also provide suggestion for the precaution of drought.謝誌 Ⅰ 摘要 Ⅱ Abstract Ⅲ 目錄 V 圖目錄 VII 表目錄 ⅩII 第一章 緒論 1 1.1 研究背景 1 1.2 研究目標 2 1.3 研究方法 3 1.4 研究步驟 5 第二章 文獻回顧 7 第三章 DSSAT模式簡介、敏感度分析與驗證 11 3.1 CERES-RICE模式簡介 11 3.2 參數設定 14 3.3 CERES-RICE模式敏感度分析 27 3.4 模式驗證 30 第四章 氣候變遷對水稻潛能產量衝擊評估 35 4.1 台灣稻米產量現況 35 4.2 情境設定 35 4.3 稻米產量模擬結果 39 4.4 氣候變遷對水稻潛能產量衝擊結果討論 39 第五章 乾旱預警系統灌溉用水量計算 65 5.1 研究區域介紹 65 5.2 現行計畫用水量計算方式 66 5.3 灌溉系統輸水損失 72 5.4 灌溉管理策略及模擬案例設計 73 第六章 農業用水產值評估及移用灌溉用水成本曲線 86 6.1 案例產量模擬設定與假設 86 6.2 灌溉用水減供案例產量模擬 86 6.3 模擬結果分析及假設 88 6.4 設計案例農業用水產值評估 89 6.5 灌溉用水移用建議 90 第七章 結論與建議 99 7.1 氣候變遷水稻潛能產量衝擊評估 99 7.2 氣候變遷水稻產能衝擊之調適策略 99 7.3 乾旱灌溉用水移用潛能產量評估結論 100 7.4 後續相關研究建議 101 參考文獻 102 附錄一 108en-US全球暖化模擬溫室效應Global WarmingGreenhouse EffectsSimulationthesis