2018-08-012024-05-18https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/699230摘要：近年來極短時的暴雨與瞬間強風發生次數頻繁，而且氣象作業單位事先往往沒有預 警，導致嚴重氣象災害。這些事件例如2012年6月12日中壢的豪大雨、2015年6月 14日台北市南區的午後雷雨以及2017年6月2日北海岸的梅雨鋒面滯留所致超大暴雨 等，都會造成都市淹水、山坡地區山崩與土石流等嚴重災情。因此發展極短時暴雨 與強風之預報技術，以提醒民眾可能發生的災情，是目前急待解決的氣象防災課題 。 這些瞬間暴雨強風的發生，極有可能是由於對流系統內部對流胞間的碰撞而增 強對流強度，而對流胞間的合併可能使得冷池移速變緩，導致降水時間拉長使得累 積雨量迅速增加而產生豪大雨。本計畫將使用高解析度模式直接解析對流胞，以瞭 解這些深對流系統產生極短時暴雨強風的物理機制，進而發展出所對應的預報技術 。<br> Abstract: In recent decades, the extremely short-time heavy rainfall and strong wind gust occur frequently, and these evenets result in severe meteorological damage due to the lack of proper warming. These events include the torrential rainfall case over Chungli on 12 June 2012, the afternoon thunderstorm case over southern Taipei on 14 June 2015, and the extreme rainfall associated with the stationary Mei-Yu front over northeast coast on 2 June 2017. All the events produced heavy rainfall and strong wind gust, urban flooding, landslide and mudslide over the terrain areas. Thus, it is urgent to develop the forecast technique for these extreme weather events producing heavy rainfall and wind gust, in order to provide proper advanced warning and reduce damages. The occurrence of these extreme weather events may result from the collision and merging of several convective cells, which may enhance convection intensity after cell merger. The collision between precipitation-induced cold pool boundaries may slow down the propagation of cold pool, extend the rainfall duration and enhance the accumulated precipitation, resulting in severe flooding. The objective of this project is to explicitly simulate convective cells using high-resolution numerical model, to understand the physical mechanisms responsible for the heavy rainfall and wind gust, and to develop the corresponding forecast technique.極短時暴雨瞬間強風對流胞合併颱風Extremely short-time heavy rainfallinstantaneous wind gustcell mergerand typhoon