CHUNG-MIN LIAOLin Y.-J.2020-01-142020-01-1420121201-9712https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/448834Objective: The objective of this study was to link transmission dynamics with a probabilistic risk model to provide a mechanistically explicit assessment for estimating the multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR TB) infection risk in regions of Taiwan. Methods: A relative fitness (RF)-based MDR TB model was used to describe transmission, validated with disease data for the period 2006-2010. A dose-response model quantifying by basic reproduction number (R0) and total proportion of infected population was constructed to estimate the site-specific MDR TB infection risk. Results: We found that the incidence rate of MDR TB was highest in Hwalien County (4.91 per 100 000 population) in eastern Taiwan, with drug-sensitive and multidrug-resistant R0 estimates of 0.89 (95% CI 0.23-2.17) and 0.38 (95% CI 0.05-1.30), respectively. The predictions were in apparent agreement with observed data in the 95% credible intervals. Our simulation showed that the incidence of MDR TB will be falling by 2013-2016. Our results indicated that the selected regions of Taiwan had only ?1% probability of exceeding 50% of the population with infection attributed to MDR TB. Conclusions: Our study found that the ongoing control programs implemented in Taiwan may succeed in curing most patients with MDR TB and will reduce the TB incidence countrywide. ? 2012 International Society for Infectious Diseases.Infection risk; Modeling; Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis; Relative fitness; Transmission[SDGs]SDG3article; disease transmission; geographic distribution; health program; human; infection risk; mathematical model; multidrug resistant tuberculosis; Mycobacterium tuberculosis; population dynamics; probability; quantitative analysis; risk assessment; Taiwan; validation study; Algorithms; Antitubercular Agents; Communicable Disease Control; Epidemics; Female; Humans; Incidence; Male; Models, Statistical; Mycobacterium tuberculosis; Population Dynamics; Risk Assessment; Taiwan; Tuberculosis, Multidrug-Resistantjournal article10.1016/j.ijid.2012.06.0012-s2.0-84866462024https://www2.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84866462024&doi=10.1016%2fj.ijid.2012.06.001&partnerID=40&md5=65aa9f7c04c8847d953fab5ed4688323