2012-02-042024-05-17https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/684111摘要：為能審慎評估全球氣候變遷可能造成之衝擊及相關調適策略，經濟部水利署業規劃於四年內（2010~2013年）推動「氣候變遷對水環境之衝擊與調適研究計畫」科技研究發展專業計畫，以為水利署因應全球氣候變遷可能對水資源、旱災、防洪及海岸防護等掌理事項造成之衝擊及其調適策略奠定基礎。水利署因其執掌業務特性，需針對暴雨水文事件之時間尺度與集水區或地區性之空間尺度進行研究，故需就前述時間、空間尺度進行不同氣候變遷情境下之水文情境評估研究。本「氣候變遷水文情境評估研究」計畫目的係為以99、100年度「氣候變遷水文環境風險評估研究」已建立氣候變遷相關水文資料產製方法論及流程為基礎，進行台灣地區氣候變遷下未來目標年降雨情境、極端事件降雨情境、地下水水文情境之雨量資料產製，並對產出之情境資料進行評估與分析。其中，會蒐集並整理由國家災害防救科技中心產出之統計降尺度資料與動力降尺度資料，亦將會與水利署與專家舉行座談會，討論使用國科會推動之臺灣氣候變遷推估與資訊平台計畫（Taiwan Climate Change Projection and Information Platform Project, TCCIP）所產出之統計降尺度資料與動力降尺度資料之設定與使用。並且，也將配合水利署其他氣候變遷相關研究計畫的資料產製所需之雨量情境資料。各項研究結果可作為研擬因應氣候變遷調適策略及行動計畫之參考。<br> Abstract: Aiming to assess the impact of climate change on water resources and formulate adaptation strategies, Water Resources Agency (WRA) initiated a four-year (2010 - 2013) Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Program (CCIAP). Due to the nature of water resources planning and design for which WRA bears the administrative responsibility, it is imperative for CCIAP to consider the impact of climate change at local and event scales. Thus, among a group of CCIAP projects, this project aims to assess the impact of climate change on event rainfall properties in Taiwan, evaluate the temporal and spatial variations of these impacts and their risks, and to assess hydrologic scenarios under previous climate Change of each temporal and spatial variations in a period of two years. This project generate, analyze and asscee the hydrologic scenarios data including annual rainfall, extreme rainfall event, and rainfall related groundwater data for the projection period of 2020 – 2039 under the methodology and procedures of previous Study - Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Hydrological Risk, 2010~2011. Based on the GCM outputs under different scenarios provided by National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction (NCDR), this project will with hold symposium and discuss with WRA and specialists for the data provided by Taiwan Climate Change Projection and Information Platform Project, TCCIP. The result of this study may be taken as reference for bringing up adaption strategy and action planning of climate change.氣候變遷水文情境評估Climate ChangeHydrologic ScenariosAssessment