2014-02-192024-05-14https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/658853摘要：由於部份WTO貿易自由化議題的談判停滯不前，近年來各國更加快區域經貿整合的腳步。截至2013年7月，通知WTO的RTA共計有575個，其中生效實施的有379件。面對區域經濟整合的趨勢，為確保我經濟成長，必須與主要貿易夥伴洽簽FTA。為配合未來我國加入區域經濟整合的腳步，以及農業經貿深度自由化對農業部門之影響，實有必要事先評估，以因應產業可能受到之影響。並分析我國與歐盟洽簽自由貿易協定後，我國因應經貿自由化之農業戰略，研擬我國妥適之因應對策，以儘早做好充分準備，透過調整產業結構與提升競爭力，化危機為轉機。&#10;本計畫隨時配合施政的需求，透過美國普渡大學政策研究中心(Global Trade Analysis Project；簡稱GTAP)研發的全球貿易定量分析模型(GTAP Model)來模擬台歐FTA對台灣整體農業衝擊影響；進一步透過美國德州農工大學合作研發建&#63991;台灣地區農業部門模型（Taiwan Agricultural Sectoral Model，簡稱TASM）與台灣漁業部門模型（Taiwan Fishery Sectoral Model，簡稱TFSM），探討研析我國與歐盟洽簽自由貿易之各種模擬情境，各種可能農產品關稅的進一步調降、優惠性原產地、進出口規範之訂定等對我國農業的影響及利弊衝擊評估；並參歐盟在與其他國家其農業的因應戰略，研析可供我國借鏡之作法，研擬我國因應經貿自由化之農業戰略&#10;而未來預期效益包含：1.蒐集歐盟對其他國家之農業政策。2.研擬不同的模擬方式或情境設定，評估台歐FTA對我國衝擊影響評估。3.提供必要且即時的模擬評估及決策支援，或於相關專業期刊發表。<br> Abstract: As part of the WTO negotiations on trade liberalization issues stagnated in recent years,almost all countries accelerate the pace of regional economic and trade integration. Until July, 2013, 575 RTAs have been proposed to the WTO (regional free trade agreements), of which 379 agreements already in force to perform.&nbsp; Faced with the trend of regional economic integration, we need to ensure that our economic growth, negotiating with our major trading partners and signing FTAs. In order to being involved into regional economic integration, as well as to accelerate the trade of agriculture, prior assessment is necessary. Analyzing the agricultural strategy with global trade liberalization, adopting proper countermeasures and adjusting industrial structure is the three key elements for facing the global trend of economic and trade liberalization.&#10;This project will meet the policy demand as specified above. Refer to EU’S FTA experiences in agricultural strategy. Then this project adopts GTAP Model and its database developed by Global Trade Analysis Project of Purdue University to evaluate the economic impacts to agricultural and fishery sectors while Taiwan-EU FTA. Besides, Taiwan Agricultural Sectoral Model (TASM) and Taiwan Fishery Sectoral Model are adopted to stimulate the scenarios such as agricultural products’ further cut in tariffs, preferential origin, sets of import and export specifications through multi-country and single-country model of Taiwan-EU FTA to assess the pros and cons and the impact on Taiwan’s agriculture.&#10;The expected benefits of the research include: (1). Research and Analysis of EU on their overall agricultural strategies and government budget. Propose the proper strategies that fit Taiwan the best. (2).Simulate different scenarios and serve as important reference to the agricultural and fishery sector in Taiwan and provide relevant background for policy decision-making and for future negotiations. (3). Complete the final report writing, propose specific policy recommendations for decision-making reference and provide necessary and immediate modeling assessments and decision supports. Moreover, we will make our research results published, if possible, in relevant professional journals.&#10;&#10;&nbsp;可計算一般均衡分析法顯示性比較利益指數台灣農業部門模型Computable General EquilibriumGlobal Revealed Comparative Advantage IndexTASM