蔡彥卿2006-07-262018-06-292006-07-262018-06-292002http://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw//handle/246246/18409財政部證券暨期貨管理委員會於民國89 年5 月發佈新聞指 出，鑑於上市、上櫃公司在每年10 月底提出當年度第3 季季報 後，直至翌年的4 月底才須依規定再提出前一年度全年的財務報 告與當年度第1 季季報，其間形成了將近6 個月的財務報告空窗 期。為填補此一財務報告資訊時效性之缺失，台灣證券交易所起 始草擬「自行結算年度財務報告」方案，擬要求上市公司於每年 1 月底前公布上一年度自行結算之簡明資產負債表及損益表，且若自 行結算盈餘，與屆後公布經簽證會計師查核之財務報告盈餘相較，差 異達10%以上且影響金額達新台幣3,000 萬元及實收資本額之 0.5%者，則視為重大差異而需加以說明。其後，証期會並於89 年11 月舉辦公聽會討論同一議題。 該方案目前尚處研議階段，且各界對其中申報時限、重大差 異標準等規定看法不一。而雖該方案因尚未施行，並無實施後實 證資料可供驗證，但近年來，台灣上市公司往往於每營業年度結 束後，自行於媒體發布公司結算但尚未經會計師查核的稅前盈餘 數字，即所謂之年度盈餘概估，其性質幾等同「自行結算年度財 務報告」草案中所稱之「自行結算盈餘」，且此項自願揭露行為 已日漸蔚為風氣，資料量已足進行實證測試。 故本研究以民國81 年至89 年，台灣上市公司自願揭露之年 度盈餘概估資料為研究樣本，進行「自行結算年度財務報告」草 案之可行性與影響分析。第一部份先就目前草案中關於申報時 限、差異控管標準等規定，進行敏感性分析；第二部份，則以與 股價之關聯性，比較投資人對「財務報告盈餘」與「自行結算盈 餘」之使用程度；及觀察若其二者存在差異時之股價走勢，探討 當「自行結算盈餘」與屆後之「財務報告盈餘」有所差異時，投 資人是否仍能適切運用盈餘資訊於其決策中；並以投資人反應之 實證結果，界定差異之重大性水準。 實證結果分析發現，公司規模、負債比例、股權結構、好消 息、審計品質等五項變數，在Regression 模型下皆非顯著影響自 行結算盈餘準確性之因素。而以Logistic 模型分析時，公司規 模、負債比例、股權結構、好消息、審計品質等五項變數顯著影響自行結算盈餘準確性，顯示在原草案所規定之差異控管標準為 10 ％時，影響自行結算盈餘與公告盈餘間差異之公司特性能夠顯 現出來。但本研究之實證結果亦顯示，其在較寬鬆之差異控管標 準下，即差異控管標準為20 ％時，公司特性即能顯現。惟此項 結論不宜逕行推論為現行法規之差異控管標準是否適當，因管制 成本面之考量猶待進一步探討。Under the current regulation, Taiwan public companies, after disclosing the third quarterly reports in October, provide no financial statements information until next April. That is, there is a six-month blackout on information of earnings. To remedy the defect, Taiwan SEC plans to require the public companies to file and disclose their unaudited preliminary earnings of prior year before the end of every January. Additionally, the differences between preliminary earnings and audited reported earnings that are over 10%, NT 30 millions and 0.5% of capital stock will exceed the materiality threshold. Under those conditions, the filing companies must explain why material differences exist. Keywords ： The proposed filing deadline and material difference threshold of preliminary earnings are being on the debate now. Since the act has not been enacted yet, we are lack of the available data to examine these proposals empirically. However, most Taiwan public companies voluntarily disclose the unaudited earnings estimates recently. In fact, the earnings estimates are the same as preliminary earnings called by Taiwan SEC, and the disclosures are popular enough to supply the sufficient data for empirical study. Using the Taiwan public companies’ earnings estimates from 1992 to 2000, the project explores the feasibility and impact of disclosing the preliminary earnings information. The research includes two parts. First, we apply the sensitivity analysis on two issues: filing deadline and material difference threshold. Second, we examine the usefulness of preliminary earnings and of reported earnings by their association with stock price returns. Also we observe the stock price return reactions of the differences between preliminary earnings and reported earnings. The results shall be able to assist us in setting the material difference threshold in practice and in evaluating the investors’ ability to use the preliminary earnings information properly when there are material differences between preliminary earnings and audited reported earnings.application/pdf175471 bytesapplication/pdfzh-TW國立臺灣大學會計學系暨研究所自行結算盈餘公告盈餘股價報酬Preliminary EarningsReported EarningsStock Price Returnsotherhttp://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw/bitstream/246246/18409/1/902416H002013.pdf