2008-05-302024-05-17https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/684690摘要：本計畫主要目的在於利用季節性氣候預報資料，評估川流式灌溉系統乾旱事件發生之可能性，並評估乾旱事件之嚴重程度。研究中並利用基流量推估方程式，評估當乾旱事件發生時河川之流量，作為乾旱事件發生時未來1旬之水資源調配依據。此外，研究中亦將綜合季節性氣候資料預報結果與基流量推估之結果，評估未來乾旱事件發佈時機及嚴重程度分析。最後，討論水庫及川流式灌溉系統併行供水區應用本研究架構之可行性。此研究主要效益包括： 1. 強化季節性預報資料之不確定分析 2. 川流式灌溉之灌區季節性農業水資源乾旱事件發生與程度分析與發佈時機 3. 川流式灌溉之灌區引水河川短期基流量推估 4. 綜合評估乾旱事件發布時機與乾旱事件程度分析 5. 應用於川流式系統與水庫供水系統供水併行區域之可行性評估 <br> Abstract: The purpose of this study is to apply seasonal climate forecasts on precipitation to evaluate the occurrence and the magnitude of drought event for streamflow irrigation systems. Because stream flows during a drought event is major from baseflow, baseflows in the following 10 days are estimated by a baseflow equation in this study. Besides, this study also focuses on assessing the impacts of different water resources management strategies in agricultural drought. The feasibility of applying the proposed framework to the area where irrigation water is not only from reservoir but also from stream flow will also be addressed. This study uses monitoring weather data and seasonal climate forecasts to develop an agricultural drought early warning system in the stream flow irrigation system area. The major benefits will include 1. Strengthening the uncertainty analysis based on seasonal climate forecasts form difference sources. 2. Analyzing the occurrence and the magnitude of drought event based on seasonal climate forecasts. 3. Evaluating baseflows in following 10 days for a stream flow irrigation system. 4. Comprehensive analysis on the occurrence and magnitude of drought events. 5. Feasibility assessment of application to the water-supply system form reservoir and stream flow areas simultaneously.農業乾旱預警系統川流式灌溉Agricultural droughtEarly Warning systemstreamflow