陳虹如Chen, Hung-Ju臺灣大學:經濟學研究所方奕翔Fang, I-HsiangI-HsiangFang2010-05-052018-06-282010-05-052018-06-282008U0001-2407200815014200http://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw//handle/246246/179335近年來已開發國家的國人預期壽命延長，而生育率卻逐年下降，樣的現象使得人口結構逐漸老化，進而使得退休後老人年金的財源面臨困窘。針對此現象本文提出引進移民可降低支付社會福利的稅負，並討論移民對經濟成長的影響。由於社會福利負擔將與移民分擔，使得家計單位保有更多可支配所得，如此使得生育小孩的機會成本增加，進而使社會平均生育率降低。又因生育率的降低，使得人們可分配較多教育資源於小孩身上，加速人力資本累積，提升經濟成長。而人口老化問題較嚴重或社會福利較豐厚的國家引進移民所帶來的好處效果會較顯著；另外，若政府引進教育水準較低的移民，其帶來的好處也會較大。This paper analyzes the effect of introducing immigrants on the tax burden of social security and the economic growth in a model with endogenous fertility. We find that the tax burden will be more widely distributed, thereby enabling the households to retain a larger share of their income. An increase in disposable income would lead to a greater opportunity cost of bearing offspring, and thus parents will choose to have fewer children when immigrants are introduced. Consequently, each child will be allocated with more resources, and receive better education. Higher investment on education accelerates the human capital accumulation, and thus boosts the economic growth. The longer the longevity or the more beneficial the social security system, the greater the effect of introducing immigrants will be. Moreover, if less-educated immigrants are introduced, the tax burden of social security will decrease by a larger amount.Contents Introduction ..........................................1 The Model .............................................8.1 Households . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.2 Firms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11.3 Equilibrium . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11 Model Solutions ........................................12.1 Homogeneous agent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12.2 Heterogeneous Agent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15 Numerical Analysis .....................................17.1 Calibration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.2 Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.2.1 The Steady State Results . . . . . . . . . . 18.2.2 Dynamics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.3 Policy Implications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .20.4 Environment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .24 Empirical Evidence ................................27.1 Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .28.2 Prediction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .29.3 Estimation Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 Concluding Remark .......................33application/pdf544916 bytesapplication/pdfen-US移民生育率內生化養老金制度ImmigrationEndogenous fertilitySocial security[SDGs]SDG8[SDGs]SDG10thesishttp://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw/bitstream/246246/179335/1/ntu-97-R95323036-1.pdf