Looking for a Needle in a Haystack: Revisiting the Cross-country Causes of the 2008-9 Crisis by Bayesian Model Averaging

TAI-KUANG HO2019-10-222019-10-222015130427https://www2.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84944279220&doi=10.1111%2fecca.12125&partnerID=40&md5=cd6c104f8d3431bc09acca497842e5dchttps://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/427091In this paper we explore the cross-country variation in the output impact of the global financial crisis in 2008-9. We use the extensive dataset of Rose and Spiegel but control for the problems of model uncertainty and outliers by using a variety of Bayesian model averaging techniques. We find first that cross-country differences in crisis intensity can be explained by macroeconomic vulnerabilities. Second, ignoring model uncertainty can lead to incorrect inferences. Third, international trade linkages do matter. ? 2015 The London School of Economics and Political Science.[SDGs]SDG17Looking for a Needle in a Haystack: Revisiting the Cross-country Causes of the 2008-9 Crisis by Bayesian Model Averagingjournal article10.1111/ecca.1212518037191500