Chang, Y.-J.Y.-J.ChangWinker, H.H.WinkerSculley, M.M.SculleyJhen Hsu2021-01-272021-01-272020https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-85076841691&partnerID=40&md5=2065b1ff33cc55be1f87bf2488d78ac4https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/542749Fish population processes could exhibit non-stationary behaviour as a stochastic biological process with temporal autocorrelation that may be influenced by environmental changes. Here we developed a Bayesian autoregressive state-space surplus production modelling framework to explore potential non-stationarity in population processes. We then evaluated the consequence of non-stationary population processes on the future risk of overexploitation for three Pacific billfish stocks (striped marlin, Kajikia audax; blue marlin, Makaira nigricans; and swordfish Xiphias gladius) that are formally assessed on a regular basis by a Regional Fisheries Management Organization in the Pacific Ocean. The results showed evidence of non-stationary population processes for Western and Central North Pacific Ocean (WCNPO) striped marlin, and to a lesser extent, Pacific blue marlin and WCNPO swordfish. Trends in the theoretical maximum sustainable yield and intrinsic growth rate were observed as oscillating regimes for swordfish, and as long-term directional changes for striped marlin. The non-stationary population processes did not strongly influence the forecasted biomass trend at the current catch level for any of the three stocks. However, the future risk of overexploitation (Prob[B < BMSY]) was sensitive to changes in the population processes for striped marlin (increased the risk by 20%). This work illustrates that the inclusion of non-stationary population processes could impose challenges for developing a stock rebuilding plan and provides a framework to account for non-stationary population processes for the billfish stocks in the Pacific Ocean. © 2019 Elsevier Ltd[SDGs]SDG13[SDGs]SDG14Climate change; Fisheries; Forecasting; Growth rate; Oceanography; Risk analysis; Stochastic systems; Billfish; Directional changes; Environmental change; Fisheries management; Maximum sustainable yields; Non-stationarities; North Pacific Ocean; Production modelling; Risk assessment; autocorrelation; Bayesian analysis; biomass; environmental change; exploitation; finfish; growth rate; maximum sustainable yield; stochasticity; stock assessment; trend analysis; Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (North); Pacific Ocean (West); Makaira mazara; Makaira nigricans; Tetrapturus audax; Xiphias gladius; Xiphiidaejournal article10.1016/j.dsr2.2019.1047072-s2.0-85076841691WOS:000554017400010