摘要:近年氣候變遷現象越趨頻繁與明顯,在溫度升高、降雨量型態改變、極端氣候發生頻率及極強度增加的情況下,對農業生產與生物多樣性可能造成衝擊,農業生產可能減少、品質下降、危及糧食安全,生態系原有棲地可能受影響,造成生物多樣性流失等。惟目前氣候變遷情況或極端氣候現象的成因與機制仍未確定與完全瞭解,相關之影響評估研究與觀測資訊未臻完善,且未來有關氣候變遷之趨勢仍具不確定性,我國仍需持續加強資訊蒐集與分析,包含氣候觀測資訊、氣候變遷影響評估工作等。過去農業部門在氣候變遷調適路徑之研擬,脆弱度與影響評估僅止於文獻回顧,尚缺乏具有共識之未來氣候變遷推估情境,亦缺乏系統性、整體性之脆弱度、危害度、影響評估與風險分析。因此,建立農業體系共通之模擬情境,並進行各面向之風險分析與影響評估,係為調適策略研擬與檢討之基礎,以建構能因應氣候變遷之韌性農業。 故本計畫以產業關聯與動態可計算一般均衡分析架構為基礎,建立我國農業體系之社會經濟資料庫以及整合性之氣候變遷影響評估模型,建立未來各地區之社會經濟路徑情境(SSP),結合AR5或AR6之模擬情境與三大假設情境(農業受到氣溫上升1.5℃臨界值、農業可用水資源短缺10%、災變天候事件),進行包括農林漁牧各產業之生產、市場、消費、所得、整體社會經濟及糧食安全等面向的衝擊影響評估,並依據前述影響評估結果,確定優先之改善項目或採取措施,以利調適路徑研擬,強化調適政策之執行,強化農業之經濟恢復力與產業韌性,確保我國糧食安全。 本年度(109)重要工作項目為 1.蒐整過去農產品受氣候變遷影響之科學監測或研究結果,結合產業、經濟、人口、勞動力、貿易、災害等社會經濟面資料,初步分析中長期氣候變遷對農林漁牧業生產影響,以釐清導致農業體系風險增加之主要氣候因子,建立我國農業體系之風險分析模式。 2.依據本計畫三大假設情境(農業受到氣溫上升1.5℃臨界值、農業可用水資源短缺10%、災變天候事件),參考運用國內外氣候變遷模擬情境與預測成果,建立我國農業體系未來氣候變遷模擬情境,並建立我國氣候變遷與經濟社會變遷之整合性影響評估模型。 3.進行未來基線預測與情境模擬,檢視我國未來農業體系所面臨之風險,並針對農林漁牧各產業之生產、市場、消費、所得、整體社會經濟及國際間糧食安全等面向進行衝擊影響評估,提出農業調適路徑與措施之政策建議,作為政府研擬氣候變遷調適決策之依據。 4.辦理2場專家座談會或工作會議。
Abstract: In recent years, climate change has become more frequent and obvious. Because of increasing temperature, changing rainfall patterns, and increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather, agricultural production and biodiversity are very likely affected, such as reduced agricultural production and quality, endangering food security, affecting biological habitats, and reduced biodiversity. However, because the mechanisms of climate change and extreme weather have not been fully understood and relevant impact assessments and collecting observation information have not been completed, Taiwan’s government is continuing to strengthen basic information collection and analysis for high uncertainty of climate change, climate observation and impact assessment. In the past, Taiwan’s agricultural sector only conducted literature reviews on climate change adaptation pathways, vulnerability and impact assessments. It was lacking not only consensus scenarios but also systematic and overall vulnerability, hazard, impact assessment, and risk analysis for climate change in the future. Thus, the establishment of a common simulation scenario, the risk analysis, and the impact assessment of various aspects in agricultural system, are the basis for the formulation and communication approaches of adaptation policies to construct the resilient agriculture which responded to climate change. This research project is to build a socio-economic database of the Taiwan agricultural system and an integrated climate change impact assessment model based on the input-output (IO) table and the framework of a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis, to establish shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) scenarios in various regions combined AR5 or AR6 simulation scenarios and three hypothetical scenarios (Agriculture affected by a temperature rise of 1.5 °C, a shortage of agricultural water resources of 10%, and catastrophic weather events), and to carry out impact assessments including production, market, consumption, income, overall socio-economic, and food security of agriculture, forestry, fishery, and husbandry industries. Based on the results of the aforementioned impact assessment, we will recommend Taiwan’s government to prioritize improvement projects or take measures to optimize the adaptation pathway, to strengthen the implementation of adaptation policies and the agricultural resilience, and to ensure Taiwan’s food security. Important work items in 2020 are stated as below 1.Collect the scientific monitoring or research results of past agricultural products affected by climate change, combine the socio-economic data of industry, economy, population, labor, trade, disasters, and analyze the impact of mid- and long-term climate change on agricultural, forestry, fishery, and husbandry production initially, clarify the main climatic factors that lead to increased risks in the agricultural system, and establish a risk analysis mode for the agricultural system in Taiwan. 2.Establish future climate change simulation scenarios for Taiwan`s agricultural system and an integrated impact assessment model for climate and economic-social change in Taiwan based on three hypothetical scenarios (Agriculture affected by a temperature rise of 1.5 °C, a shortage of agricultural water resources of 10%, and catastrophic weather events), and referred to simulation scenarios and forecasting results of domestic and foreign climate change. 3.Perform baseline assessment and scenario simulations, review the risks of Taiwan`s agricultural system in the future, and conduct impact assessments on the production, market, consumption, income, overall socio-economic, and international food security of agriculture, forestry, fishery, and husbandry industries. Furthermore, propose policy recommendations for agricultural adaptation pathways and measures as the basis for the government to make climate change adaptation decisions. 4.Host 2 expert panels or working meetings.