Abstract
摘要:近期以歐洲為主的生育率研究發現,多數曾經歷過低生育率困境的國家目前都出現生育率上升的現象。學者認為時期效應(tempo effect)對於婚、育時間影響力的縮減是生育率止跌回升的主要原因,其他因素如社會經濟發展程度的提升、人均收入的增加以及性別平權的倡議都對穩定生育率有正向的影響。儘管在日本,韓國和台灣也觀察到總生育率上升的趨勢,日本人口學者卻指出近年數據的反彈很可能只是對於2000-2005年間過渡低落的婚育表現產生之彌補性回應,長期而言日本的總生育率還是會下降。因應東西方工業化國家在生育研究上不一致的觀點與預期,本研究計畫將致力於回答兩個實際問題:台灣最近止跌回升的生育率能否持續?時期效應對於結婚、生育時間的影響正在減弱或終將消失嗎?
欲瞭解個別國家的生育轉型與特質,有必要對其政治與社會制度脈絡的發展進行深入探究。台灣歷經上個世紀在政治、社會、經濟的重大轉折與衝擊後,已連帶影響並造成家庭在制度面與結構面出現實質的變化,不但結婚與生育的時間延後,婚育事件發生的數量也逐漸減少,同居與非婚生子女開始增多,過去依賴墮胎達成生育控制的措施也由現代避孕方法取代。由於前述重要家庭事件出現的時間、次數與順序逐漸偏離家庭生命歷程的傳統思維,家庭組成、結構既多元且歧異的發展趨勢促使研究者嘗試研究這些家庭事件的相互影響關係,進而整合探討個人對於婚、育期程的選擇與安排,並作為推估時期與完成生育水準的基礎。立基於上述觀察與論點,規劃中的三年期研究計畫包含以下三個研究主題:
1.整合總體層次的人口,社會、經濟和區域脈絡特性,第一年的研究著重於辨識、釐清與生育水準有關之影響因素、影響模式與區域差異。
2.依據出生年輪、整併長期婚育調查資料,第二年的研究旨在探討戰後出生世代對於婚姻和生育的偏好和行為,以及制度脈絡對於個體行為的關連影響。
3.結合焦點團體訪談和準實驗設計的研究結果,第三年計畫將評估台灣近期施行之全國性與區域性鼓勵生育政策的實質效果,並檢討與現行人口政策有關之制度邏輯與意識型態的潛在影響。
Abstract: Recent European studies indicate that fertility rates are rising in many low-fertility countries. This fertility upturn is mainly attributed to a combination of a slowdown in the postponement of childbearing and increasing levels of socioeconomic development, per capita income and gender equity. While Japan, South Korea and Taiwan have also observed an increasing fertility rate, few Japanese demographers have argued that recent rise in TFR was on the rebound from a prolonged depression in the fertility during 2000-2005. Referring to these inconsistent findings, the proposed research is devoted to answer two practical questions: Could recent increasing fertility rate continue in Taiwan? Does the impact of tempo effect on period measure of fertility rate decline or disappear?
The importance of the institutional or political context in shaping the relationship between demographic causes and outcomes has obvious implications for the study of national patterns of fertility. Following tremendous socioeconomic and political transformations globally, there were substantial changes in the institution and structure of family, dramatic declines in marriage and childbearing, significant increases in non-marital cohabitation and births, and a movement from reliance on abortion to a reliance on contraception for fertility limitation. Among them, the changing marriage pattern has the strongest effect on reproductive outcomes in Taiwan. Growing diversity in the timing, number and sequencing of family events is viewed as the result of interaction of family behaviors and institutional change. Based on the institutional perspective, the major goal of this proposal is to explore the explanations for the long-term transition of total fertility rate (TFR) and to estimate cohort fertility rate (CFR) among post-war birth cohorts in Taiwan. Based on these results, we will discuss the possibility of recuperation in the near future. Accordingly, three research themes are proposed as follows:
1.Using macro-level demographic, socioeconomic and geographic measures, the first research aims to explore explanations and their effects on the transition of fertility rate.
2.Based on micro-level nation-wide survey data, the second research aims to investigate the preference and behavior of marriage and childbearing among post-war birth cohorts.
3.Combining the results of focus groups and quasi-experiment regarding national and regional pro-natal policies, the third research aims to evaluate the efficacy of current policies and institutional context in Taiwan.
Keyword(s)
制度變遷
結婚率
低生育率
時期效應
生命歷程
Institutional Change
Nuptiality
Low Fertility
Tempo Effect
Life Course