https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/385335
標題: | A Probabilistic Spatial Dengue Fever Risk Assessment by a Threshold-Based-Quantile Regression Method | 作者: | Chuan-Hung Chiu TZAI-HUNG WEN Lung-Chang Chien HWA-LUNG YU |
公開日期: | 十月-2014 | 卷: | 9 | 期: | 10 | 起(迄)頁: | e106334 | 來源出版物: | PLoS | 摘要: | Understanding the spatial characteristics of dengue fever (DF) incidences is crucial for governmental agencies to implement effective disease control strategies. We investigated the associations between environmental and socioeconomic factors and DF geographic distribution, are proposed a probabilistic risk assessment approach that uses threshold-based quantile regression to identify the significant risk factors for DF transmission and estimate the spatial distribution of DF risk regarding full probability distributions. To interpret risk, return period was also included to characterize the frequency pattern of DF geographic occurrences. The study area included old Kaohsiung City and Fongshan District, two areas in Taiwan that have been affected by severe DF infections in recent decades. Results indicated that water-related facilities, including canals and ditches, and various types of residential area, as well as the interactions between them, were significant factors that elevated DF risk. By contrast, the increase of per capita income and its associated interactions with residential areas mitigated the DF risk in the study area. Nonlinear associations between these factors and DF risk were present in various quantiles, implying that water-related factors characterized the underlying spatial patterns of DF, and high-density residential areas indicated the potential for high DF incidence (e.g., clustered infections). The spatial distributions of DF risks were assessed in terms of three distinct map presentations: expected incidence rates, incidence rates in various return periods, and return periods at distinct incidence rates. These probability-based spatial risk maps exhibited distinct DF risks associated with environmental factors, expressed as various DF magnitudes and occurrence probabilities across Kaohsiung, and can serve as a reference for local governmental agencies. © 2014 Chiu et al. |
URI: | http://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/385335 | DOI: | 10.1371/journal.pone.0106334 | SDG/關鍵字: | Article; controlled study; dengue; environmental factor; geographic distribution; human; incidence; income; infection risk; land use; population density; regression analysis; residential area; risk assessment; risk factor; socioeconomics; Taiwan; threshold based quantile regression; virus transmission; dengue; environment; probability; regression analysis; risk assessment; Dengue; Environment; Humans; Incidence; Probability; Regression Analysis; Risk Assessment; Risk Factors; Socioeconomic Factors; Taiwan |
顯示於: | 地理環境資源學系 |
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