Nonlinear Extreme‐Heat Responses to the Spatial Progression of Deforestation in the Maritime Continent
Journal
Geophysical Research Letters
Journal Volume
53
Journal Issue
12
ISSN
0094-8276
1944-8007
Date Issued
2026-06-11
Author(s)
Abstract
The Maritime Continent (MC) has undergone rapid deforestation in recent decades, altering its land-atmosphere energy balance. Using idealized Community Earth System Model simulations, we examined heat extremes under progressively increasing deforestation extents, from localized coastal clearing to complete forest removal. Surface and 2-m air temperatures warmed nearly linearly with forest loss, whereas heat extremes responded nonlinearly, intensifying under moderate deforestation but weakening under severe deforestation. This weakening reflects spatially varying extreme-heat responses across the MC, with extremes intensifying in some regions and weakening in others. The weakening is driven by reduced surface-to-atmosphere sensible heat, enhanced cold-air advection, and cooler early morning temperature. Despite the weakening of dry-heat extremes, wet-bulb temperature increased following deforestation, indicating elevated human heat stress. These findings reveal that deforestation impacts on heat extremes are scale-dependent and controlled by spatial heterogeneity, underscoring the need to incorporate realistic land-surface feedbacks when assessing regional heat risk in tropical regions.
Subjects
deforestation
extreme temperature
human heat stress
land-atmosphere interaction
nonlinear response
Publisher
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Type
journal article