A Geo-AI-based ensemble mixed spatial prediction model with fine spatial-temporal resolution for estimating daytime/nighttime/daily average ozone concentrations variations in Taiwan

High levels of ground level ozone (O3) are associated with detrimental health concerns. Most of the studies only focused on daily average and daytime trends due to the presence of sunlight that initiates its formation. However, atmospheric chemical reactions occur all day, thus, nighttime concentrations should be given equal importance. In this study, geospatial-artificial intelligence (Geo-AI) which combined kriging, land use regression (LUR), machine learning, an ensemble learning, was applied to develop ensemble mixed spatial models (EMSMs) for daily, daytime, and nighttime periods. These models were used to estimate the long-term O3 spatio-temporal variations using a two-decade worth of in-situ measurements, meteorological parameters, geospatial predictors, and social and season-dependent factors. From the traditional LUR approach, the performance of EMSMs improved by 60% (daytime), 49% (nighttime), and 57% (daily). The resulting daily, daytime, and nighttime EMSMs had a high explanatory power with and adjusted R2 of 0.91, 0.91, and 0.88, respectively. Estimation maps were produced to examine the changes before and during the implementation of nationwide COVID-19 restrictions. These results provide accurate estimates and its diurnal variation that will support pollution control measure and epidemiological studies.