Modeling non-compensatory strategies on path choices in a complex urban rail transit network considering characteristics of transfer passengers and trips

The path choice behavior of passengers is highly affected by transfer across different lines in a complex urban rail transit network that provides passengers with multiple path alternatives. Hence, the design of a transfer station in terms of its layout and transfer paths is gaining impact on passengers’ path choices in an expanding urban rail transit network. A comprehensive understanding of passenger behavior is essential for transportation planning and management to better design transfer stations and network operations. A questionnaire survey is conducted for passengers’ path choices and perception of transfer stations. Based on the collected data, this study develops a joint path choice model that combines Multinomial Logit Model (MNL) and Constrained Multinomial Logit Model (CMNL) to capture both compensatory and non-compensatory behavior, especially the latter one, which has not been fully explored in the current literature. Further, a membership model is constructed to analyze the heterogeneity of passengers’ non-compensatory behavior on transfer walking time. Four behavioral segments are identified in regard to passenger and trip characteristics. The estimation results show that the proposed model outperforms the general MNL model and allows a more convincing explanation of urban rail transit passenger behavior. Several research findings are derived, including that transfer walking time is more negatively perceived by passengers without non-compensatory behavior. Moreover, in-vehicle travel time is likely to be a minor consideration for passengers with non-compensatory behavior. The proposed model and framework enable urban rail transit operators and planners to retrieve more precise prediction of passenger flows and enhance service quality.