Concurrent increases in wet and dry extremes projected in Texas and combined effects on groundwater
Journal
Environmental Research Letters
Journal Volume
13
Journal Issue
5
Date Issued
2018
Author(s)
Abstract
The US state of Texas has experienced consecutive flooding events since spring 2015 with devastating consequences, yet these happened only a few years after the record drought of 2011. Identifying the effect of climate variability on regional water cycle extremes, such as the predicted occurrence of La Niña in winter 2017-2018 and its association with drought in Texas, remains a challenge. The present analyses use large-ensemble simulations to project the future of water cycle extremes in Texas and assess their connection with the changing El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection under global warming. Large-ensemble simulations indicate that both intense drought and excessive precipitation are projected to increase towards the middle of the 21st century, associated with a strengthened effect from ENSO. Despite the precipitation increase projected for the southern Great Plains, groundwater storage is likely to decrease in the long run with diminishing groundwater recharge; this is due to the concurrent increases and strengthening in drought offsetting the effect of added rains. This projection provides implications to short-term climate anomaly in the face of the La Niña and to long-term water resources planning. © 2018 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
Subjects
climate extremes; drought; ENSO; flood
Other Subjects
Atmospheric pressure; Drought; Floods; Global warming; Groundwater; Lanthanum; Water conservation; Water resources; Climate extremes; Climate variability; ENSO; Ground water recharge; Groundwater storage; Southern great plains; Southern oscillation; Water resources planning; Tellurium compounds; climate prediction; climate variation; drought; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; extreme event; flooding; global warming; groundwater; hydrological cycle; precipitation (climatology); regional climate; teleconnection; twenty first century; Great Plains; Texas; United States
Type
journal article