Theoretical error convergence of limited forecast horizon in optimal reservoir operating decisions
Journal
Water Resources Research
Journal Volume
49
Journal Issue
3
Pages
1728-1734
Date Issued
2013
Author(s)
Abstract
This study proposes a method of analyzing the error bound of optimal reservoir operation based on an inflow forecast with a limited horizon. This is a practical approach to real-world applications because current weather forecasts and climate predictions cannot necessarily achieve the "perfect forecast" required for optimal solutions. This study proposes a method to measure the error and error bound according to terminal stage boundary conditions, for which a theoretical convergence rate is derived. Our results suggest that convergence can be attained at a rate faster than the inverse of the extension of the study horizon. This demonstrates that the application of rolling horizons can improve the quality of decision making by exploiting available forecasts/information. When a perfect forecast is unavailable, the rolling decision procedure with regularly updated forecast information could help to avoid serious losses due to shortsighted policies. ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
Subjects
dynamic programming; error bound; hedging rules; reservoir operation; rolling decision making; study horizon
SDGs
Other Subjects
Decision making; Dynamic programming; Errors; Decision procedure; Error bound; Forecast information; Hedging rules; Optimal reservoir operations; Reservoir operation; study horizon; Theoretical errors; Weather forecasting; climate prediction; convergence; decision making; error analysis; theoretical study; weather forecasting
Type
journal article