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  4. Fuzzy duration forecast model for wind turbine construction project subject to the impact of wind uncertainty
 
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Fuzzy duration forecast model for wind turbine construction project subject to the impact of wind uncertainty

Journal
Automation in Construction
Journal Volume
81
Pages
401-410
Date Issued
2017
Author(s)
Guo, S.-J.
Chen, J.-H.
Chiu, C.-H.
SY-JYE GUO  
DOI
10.1016/j.autcon.2017.03.009
URI
https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/437829
URL
https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85015985114&doi=10.1016%2fj.autcon.2017.03.009&partnerID=40&md5=b9ff2d7ae5afe895746ec8931aa7e7c9
Abstract
Wind energy is one of the most promising renewable energy and wind farm is globally constructed for sustainable development. However, wind could produce adverse effects on some wind-sensitive tasks of wind turbine construction projects. Due to limited understanding of how wind may influence productivity in wind turbine construction project, this research presents a fuzzy duration forecast model for wind turbine construction project subject to the impact of wind uncertainty. Through the use of Beaufort scale, professional expertise, and fuzzy membership functions, the productivity loss (PL) subject to various Beaufort scale of wind can be analyzed. With historical wind speed data incorporated, the duration can be simulated and forecasted by the model. Besides, the practicality of the model is demonstrated by an actual wind turbine construction project. The findings from this research are very useful in allocating schedule risk for wind turbine construction projects where wind uncertainty arises. © 2017 Elsevier B.V.
Subjects
Duration forecast; Fuzzy modeling; Impact of wind uncertainty; Wind turbine construction
SDGs

[SDGs]SDG7

Other Subjects
Forecasting; Membership functions; Productivity; Uncertainty analysis; Wind; Wind power; Construction projects; Fuzzy durations; Fuzzy membership function; Fuzzy modeling; Productivity loss; Professional expertise; Renewable energies; Wind uncertainties; Wind turbines
Type
journal article

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