https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/448834
標題: | Assessing the transmission risk of multidrug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis epidemics in regions of Taiwan | 作者: | CHUNG-MIN LIAO Lin Y.-J. |
關鍵字: | Infection risk; Modeling; Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis; Relative fitness; Transmission | 公開日期: | 2012 | 卷: | 16 | 期: | 10 | 來源出版物: | International Journal of Infectious Diseases | 摘要: | Objective: The objective of this study was to link transmission dynamics with a probabilistic risk model to provide a mechanistically explicit assessment for estimating the multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR TB) infection risk in regions of Taiwan. Methods: A relative fitness (RF)-based MDR TB model was used to describe transmission, validated with disease data for the period 2006-2010. A dose-response model quantifying by basic reproduction number (R0) and total proportion of infected population was constructed to estimate the site-specific MDR TB infection risk. Results: We found that the incidence rate of MDR TB was highest in Hwalien County (4.91 per 100 000 population) in eastern Taiwan, with drug-sensitive and multidrug-resistant R0 estimates of 0.89 (95% CI 0.23-2.17) and 0.38 (95% CI 0.05-1.30), respectively. The predictions were in apparent agreement with observed data in the 95% credible intervals. Our simulation showed that the incidence of MDR TB will be falling by 2013-2016. Our results indicated that the selected regions of Taiwan had only ?1% probability of exceeding 50% of the population with infection attributed to MDR TB. Conclusions: Our study found that the ongoing control programs implemented in Taiwan may succeed in curing most patients with MDR TB and will reduce the TB incidence countrywide. ? 2012 International Society for Infectious Diseases. |
URI: | https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/448834 | ISSN: | 1201-9712 | DOI: | 10.1016/j.ijid.2012.06.001 | SDG/關鍵字: | article; disease transmission; geographic distribution; health program; human; infection risk; mathematical model; multidrug resistant tuberculosis; Mycobacterium tuberculosis; population dynamics; probability; quantitative analysis; risk assessment; Taiwan; validation study; Algorithms; Antitubercular Agents; Communicable Disease Control; Epidemics; Female; Humans; Incidence; Male; Models, Statistical; Mycobacterium tuberculosis; Population Dynamics; Risk Assessment; Taiwan; Tuberculosis, Multidrug-Resistant |
顯示於: | 生物環境系統工程學系 |
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