Change-point detection of long-duration extreme precipitation and the effect on hydrologic design: A case study of south Taiwan
Journal
Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment
Journal Volume
26
Journal Issue
8
Pages
1123-1130
Date Issued
2012
Author(s)
Abstract
An increase in the global temperature has intensified the hydrologic cycle, which affects the temporal patterns of precipitation. This study analyzed a long-term annual dataset measuring maximum precipitation in south Taiwan, and identified the change point of the time series using the cumulative sum technique. The result reveals a clear change point of the annual maximum rainfall for 24-h durations in 2004 at most observations. The average 24-h-duration precipitation depth in the study area increased by 27 and 36% for 20-year and 100-year extreme events compared with and without data after 2004, respectively. The long-duration precipitation depth demonstrates a significant positive trend following the change point. Furthermore, this study assesses the changes of hydrologic design while precipitation data are updated annually. The designed 20- and 100-year storm will decrease abruptly when the observed data are subsequently updated until 2004. Because of climate change, this issue is worthy of attention in hydrologic designs. © 2012 Springer-Verlag.
Subjects
Change-point analysis; Frequency analysis; Precipitation change
SDGs
Other Subjects
Precipitation (meteorology); Annual maximum rainfalls; Change point detection; Change-point analysis; Cumulative sum techniques; Extreme precipitation; Frequency Analysis; Precipitation change; Precipitation depths; Climate change; climate change; extreme event; frequency analysis; hydrological cycle; precipitation assessment; rainfall; Taiwan
Type
journal article