Seismic-Hazard Assessment over Time: Modeling Earthquakes in Taiwan
Journal
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
Journal Volume
107
Journal Issue
5
Pages
2342-2352
Date Issued
2017
Author(s)
Abstract
Research Article| September 25, 2017 Seismic‐Hazard Assessment over Time: Modeling Earthquakes in Taiwan Chung‐Han Chan; Chung‐Han Chan aEarth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, 50 Nanyang Avenue, 639798 Singapore, hantijun@googlemail.com Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Yu Wang; Yu Wang aEarth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, 50 Nanyang Avenue, 639798 Singapore, hantijun@googlemail.com Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Yu‐Ju Wang; Yu‐Ju Wang bInstitute of Nuclear Energy Research, Atomic Energy Council, Executive Yuan, 1000 Wenhua Road, Jiaan Village, Longtan District, Taoyuan City 32546, TaiwandNow at Nuclear Power Division, Taiwan Power Company, Taiwan. Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Ya‐Ting Lee Ya‐Ting Lee cDepartment of Earth Sciences, National Central University, No. 300, Jhongda Road, Jhongli District, Taoyuan City 32001, Taiwan Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Author and Article Information Chung‐Han Chan aEarth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, 50 Nanyang Avenue, 639798 Singapore, hantijun@googlemail.com Yu Wang aEarth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, 50 Nanyang Avenue, 639798 Singapore, hantijun@googlemail.com Yu‐Ju Wang bInstitute of Nuclear Energy Research, Atomic Energy Council, Executive Yuan, 1000 Wenhua Road, Jiaan Village, Longtan District, Taoyuan City 32546, TaiwandNow at Nuclear Power Division, Taiwan Power Company, Taiwan. Ya‐Ting Lee cDepartment of Earth Sciences, National Central University, No. 300, Jhongda Road, Jhongli District, Taoyuan City 32001, Taiwan Publisher: Seismological Society of America First Online: 27 Sep 2017 Online Issn: 1943-3573 Print Issn: 0037-1106 Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2017) 107 (5): 2342–2352. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120160278 Article history First Online: 27 Sep 2017 Cite View This Citation Add to Citation Manager Share Icon Share Facebook Twitter LinkedIn MailTo Tools Icon Tools Get Permissions Search Site Citation Chung‐Han Chan, Yu Wang, Yu‐Ju Wang, Ya‐Ting Lee; Seismic‐Hazard Assessment over Time: Modeling Earthquakes in Taiwan. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 2017;; 107 (5): 2342–2352. doi: https://doi.org/10.1785/0120160278 Download citation file: Ris (Zotero) Refmanager EasyBib Bookends Mendeley Papers EndNote RefWorks BibTex toolbar search Search Dropdown Menu toolbar search search input Search input auto suggest filter your search All ContentBy SocietyBulletin of the Seismological Society of America Search Advanced Search Abstract To assess the seismic hazard with temporal change in Taiwan, we developed a new approach which combines both the Brownian passage time (BPT) model and the coulomb stress change, and implements the seismogenic source parameters by the Taiwan Earthquake Model. The BPT model was adopted to describe the rupture recurrence intervals of specific fault sources together with the time elapsed since the last fault rupture to derive their long‐term rupture probability. We also evaluated the short‐term seismicity rate change based on the static coulomb stress interaction between seismogenic sources. By considering these time‐dependent factors, our new combined model, relative to a time‐independent model, suggests an increased long‐term seismic hazard in the vicinity of active faults along the western coastal plain and the Longitudinal Valley, where active faults have short recurrence intervals and long elapsed time since their last ruptures and/or short‐term elevated hazard levels right after the occurrence of large earthquakes due to the stress triggering effect. The stress enhanced by the 6 February 2016 ML 6.6 Meinong earthquake also significantly increased the rupture probabilities of several neighboring seismogenic sources in southwestern Taiwan and raised the hazard level for the near future. Our approach drew upon the advantage of incorporating both long‐ and short‐term models to provide time‐dependent earthquake probability constraints. This new model provides more insight than any other models for Taiwan. Thus, it offers decision makers and public officials an adequate basis for rapid evaluations of consequent hazards and for responses to future emergency scenarios such as victim relocation and sheltering. You do not have access to this content, please speak to your institutional administrator if you feel you should have access.
Type
journal article